UMthetho Okun kaThixo. Okun kaThixo lomlingani: definition, ifomula

Kuba uhlalutyo imeko yezoqoqosho badla ukusebenzisa umthetho Okun kaThixo. Ratio, leyo yasungulwa Scientist, uchaza ubudlelwane phakathi kwemisebenzi kunye nokukhula. Kuye kwavulwa ngokusekelwe data enokwehla ngo-1962, izazinzulu, endihleli imbeko igama lakhe. Amanani abonisa ukuba ukwanda nge-1% in ngqesho kukhokelela ekuncipheni kwe-GDP kanye ukusuka isakhono 2%. Nangona kunjalo, lo umlinganiselo ayikho njalo. Oku kunokwahluka ngokuxhomekeka kurhulumente kunye nexesha. Umlinganiselo phakathi utshintsho ngekota izinga lentswela kunye GDP real - lo mthetho Okun kaThixo. Ifomula, kufanele kuphawulwe, nangoku bagxeka. Kwaye Bambuza yokusebenziseka kwaso ukucacisa iimeko zemarike.

UMthetho Okun kaThixo

wabonakala Factor kunye nomthetho ngasemva kuyo ngenxa lweenkcukacha-manani, oko kukuthi, kugcinwa enokwehla. Oku kusekelwe akwakunyamekela ingcamango yokuqala, nto leyo ke ihlolwe practice. Arthur UMelvin Ouken wabona ipateni, ukufunda izibalo of eUnited States. Kuyinto kulinganisiwe. Oku kungenxa yokuba imveliso yasekhaya iphenjelelwa yimiba ezininzi, hayi nje ukuba izinga lentswela-ngqesho. Nangona kunjalo, uhlalutyo lula enjalo ubudlelwane phakathi komsebenzi kuqoqosho wambi kwakhona luncedo njengoko uphando lubonisa Okun. Lomlingani ofakwe izazinzulu ibonisa ukuxhomekeka bomzimba umlinganiselo phakathi output kunye nentswela-ngqesho. Ouken wayekholelwa ukuba ukwanda kwimveliso kwesambuku nge-2% ngenxa iinguqu zilandelayo:

• imenyu kwinqanaba wakungasebenzi wovandlakanyo nge-1%;
• ukwandisa ingqesho ka 0.5%;
• nokwandisa inani leeyure zokusebenza ukuba umsebenzi ngamnye kwi-0.5%;
• Ukukhula kwemveliso ye-1%.

Ngenxa yoko, ukunciphisa izinga elibujikele Okun ngqesho 0.1%, sinokulindela ukuba ukwanda kwi GDP yokwenene 0.2%. Nangona kunjalo, lo umlinganiselo uyohluka kumazwe awahlukeneyo kunye kumaxesha. Ukuxhomekeka iye yavavanywa practice kuzo zombini GDP kunye GNP. UMartin kuqikelelwa Prachovni, ukuhla kwimveliso nge-3% ngenxa ukuhla nge-1% in ngqesho. Noko ke, yena ukholelwa ukuba lo ulwalamano ngqo kuphela. Ngokutsho Prachovni kwimveliso kuchaphazela ngqesho sabakho kufa, kunye nezinye izinto ezifana nokusetyenziswa amandla kunye inani leeyure zomsebenzi. Kuyimfuneko ke ngoko ukuzilahla. Prachovni ekubaleni nciphisa intswela-1% kukhokelela ekwandeni lwe GDP% 0.7 kuphela. Ukuxhomekeka iba buthathaka ekuhambeni kwexesha. Ngowe-2005, i-Uhlalutyo lweenkcukacha-manani zakutshanje olwenziwa Endryu uAbheli uBen Bernanke. Baqikelela ukuba ukwanda nge-1% in ngqesho kukhokelela ukuhla nge-2% kwimveliso.

izizathu

Kodwa kutheni amazinga okukhula GDP ngaphezu ipesenti utshintsho kwentswela-ngqesho? Kuyenzeka ukunika iinkcazo ezininzi:

• Isenzo isiphumo. Abantu abaninzi basebenza, kokukhona kwemfuno yeempahla. Ngoko ke, bemveliso ukukhula ngesantya ngokukhawuleza ngaphezu kwinqanaba emsebenzini.
• izibalo sinesono. abantu abangaphangeliyo ukuze bayeke nje ekhangela umsebenzi. Ukuba oku kuyenzeka, baya shwaka le "radar"-arhente manani.
• Kwakhona, abantu okunene-abaqeshwe ingaqala ukusebenza ngaphantsi. Ngo-manani, oko phantse ayibonakali. Nangona kunjalo, le meko nefuthe elibaluleke kakhulu kwimveliso. Ngoko ke, kukho inani elifanayo labasebenzi, singakwazi ufumana izalathisi ezahlukeneyo epheleleyo imveliso yasekhaya.
• Ukwehla yimveliso yabasebenzi. Oku kungaba ngenxa nje kuphela ukuvuthuluka mbutho, kodwa ezinenani ngokugqithiseleyo labasebenzi.

UMthetho Okun esithi: ifomula

Thina bangangenisa ngobhalo ilandelayo:

• Y - Impahla lokwenene.
• Y '- enokubakho epheleleyo imveliso yasekhaya.
• u - ngqesho lokwenene.
• u '- inqanaba endalo mzobo odlulileyo.
• c - Okun ingumlingani.

Thathela ingqalelo ubhalo ngentla, omnye esinokuzifumana le fomyula ilandelayo: (Y '- Y) / Y' = a * (u - u ').

Kwi-US, ukususela ngowe-1955, elo nani yokugqibela yi ngokubanzi yeyesi-2 okanye ezi-3, njengoko kuboniswa izifundo enokwehla ikhankanywe ngasentla. Nangona kunjalo, olu guqulelo lwe mthetho Okun kaThixo lunqabe lingasetyenziswa ngenxa yokuba amanqanaba anokubakho kwemisebenzi kunye nemveliso kwesambuku zicwadi kunzima ukuhlola. Kukho olunye uhlobo lwale ifomula.

Indlela ukubala GDP

Ukubala izinga lokukhula GDP, sisithi thaca le olubhalo zilandelayo:

• Y - isixa ngqo kulo mba.
• Δu - utshintsho ngokoqobo inqanaba lentswela xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ongaphambili.
• C - Okun ingumlingani.
• ΔY - ukutshintsha imveliso kanye xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ongaphambili.
• K - avareji yokukhula qho ngonyaka imveliso kwi ingqesho epheleleyo.

Usebenzisa nobhalo lwe idata kuveliswe equation ilandelayo: ΔY / Y = k - c * Δu.

Kwithuba mihla e-US kwimbali lomlingani C 'ulingana no 2 K - 3%. Ngenxa yoko, lenxaki: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

ukusetyenziswa

Ukwazi ukuba ukubala indlela Okun lomlingani, ngokufuthi kunceda neendlela zokwakha. Noko ke, inani eliphuma azicacanga kakhulu. Oku kungenxa 'ngumlingani ka ukutshintshatshintsha kumazwe kunye kumaxesha. Ngoko ke, kufuneka ithathele ingqalelo nentekelelo ngenxa yokukhula GDP ngokudala amathuba emisebenzi kunye iqondo elithile kugxeka. Ngaphezu koko, intsingiselo elifutshane elide yechaneke ngaphezulu. Oku kungenxa yokuba naliphi na izinga utshintsho circumstantial zingachaphazela.

practice

Ukucinga ukuba izinga lentswela yi-10%, kwaye imveliso neyona kwesambuku - iiyunithi milliardov 7500 emali.
Kufuneka ukufumana isixa GDP ezinokuthi zenziwe ukuba izinga lentswelo ngqesho ehambelana kophawu yendalo (6%). Le ngxaki ngokulula isonjululwe ngokusebenzisa umthetho Okun kaThixo. Ratio ibonisa ukuba elililo obugqithisileyo phezu zendalo intswela-1% ikhokelela kwilahleko-2% ye-GDP. Ngoko ke kuqala kufuneka ukufumana umahluko phakathi kwe-10% ne-6%. Ngoko, umahluko phakathi kanye zendalo izinga lentswela yi-4%. Emva koko kulula ukuqonda ukuba GDP nge-8% kwi ingxaki emva inani lalo. Ngoku sithatha eyona iyonke kwimveliso yasekhaya 100%. Ngaphezu koko, oko kunokwenziwa isigqibo sokuba 108% ye-GDP yokwenene 7500 * 1.08 = 8.1 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi lwemali. Kufuneka iqondwe into yokuba lo mzekelo kuphela umzekelo kwekhosi koqoqosho. Enyanisweni, imeko inokuba nomahluko ngokupheleleyo. Ngoko ke, umthetho ukusetyenziswa Okun yeyona nto efanelekileyo kuphela nolwemozulu elifutshane, apho kungekho mfuneko yokuba imilinganiselo eqondile kakhulu.