Iphayibhile yegesi kwiChina. Iprojekthi kunye necandelo lepayipi yegesi eChina

IRashiya kunye neTshayina batyikitya isivumelwano segrandiose sokunikezelwa kwegesi yendalo. Iphayibesi yegesi eya e-China kulindeleke ukuba ivumele iGagprom ukuba idibanise ukuthumela kwayo ngaphandle, kunye negalelo lokuphumelela impumelelo ngokubambisana phakathi kwamazwe amabini.

I khontrakthi isayinwe

Ekupheleni kukaMeyi 2014, isivumelwano sagqitywa phakathi kweRashiya kunye neRiphabhlikhi yabantu baseChina (emele iGazprom kunye ne-CNPC) ekunikezeni igesi yendalo evela kwilizwe lethu. Olu xwebhu lusayinwe xa uMongameli waseRashiya eFransi ehambele eChina. Umthamo wekhontrakthi i-$ 400 billion, ukufaneleka kwayo iminyaka engama-30. Ngonyaka, umthamo wempahla uza kuba ngama-38 billion cubic metres yegesi.

Esi sivumelwano sihlukile kwiGazprom. Ikhampani yaseRussia ayizange iphinde iphethe ngezivumelwano ezinjalo. Ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba i-China ithole igesi ngexabiso elincinci (malunga needola ezingama-350 ngamakhilomitha ayi-cubic meters), efanelwe i-Russia (ekuqaleni sacela 400). Ngokubambisana nesivumelwano phakathi kwamazwe amabini, imemorandamu ebalulekileyo ekuqondeni ngokubambisana ngexesha lokunikezelwa kwegesi isayinwe. I-pipeline entsha yegesi esuka eRashiya eya kwiChina iya kwakhelwa ukuzalisekisa isivumelwano.

Indlela engafanelekanga yokusayinela

Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokusayinwa kwekhontrakthi yegesi phakathi kweRashiya neTshayina kwiimidiya ezahlukeneyo, kwaxelwa ukuba iingxoxo zafikeleleka, kwaye akukho mvumelwano inokugqitywa.

Ezi ngqungquthela, njengoko ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba, zazinobulungisa - ukuba nje iminyaka embalwa ngaphambili, uzama ukuphelisa umnqophiso onjalo phakathi kweRussian Federation kunye ne-PRC ayengaphumelelanga. Ngokomzekelo, thabatha i-Forum yase-St. Petersburg ye-Economic Forum ngo-2011: ababameli beenkampani zegesi zaseChina babekho kuwo, kodwa abazange bafikelele kwisivumelwano nabaseRashiya. Isizathu sokuba ukungavumelani phezu kwexabiso. Ezinye iingcali zazikholelwa ukuba iRashiya inika i-gas ngokuphindwe kabini kwiChina eyayingayifumana kwamanye amazwe, ngakumbi kwi-Asia Ephakathi. Ngako oko, umbuzo wokuba ingaba itayiti yerhasi evela eRashiya eya kwiChina iya kubonakala iyenziwa ixesha elide.

Inkontileka yeGesi: njani kuya kuchaphazela ubudlelwane phakathi kweRashiya neChina?

Isiseko sobambiswano phakathi kweRussian Federation kunye ne-PRC babuyiselwe kwiminyaka ye-90. Ngomnyaka we-2001, amazwe asayine isivumelwano apho ubuhlobo bobuhle nobumelwane buza kubakhelwa khona. Ngo-2011, kwenziwa iinzame zokudlulisela intsebenziswano kwisicwangciso esicwangcisiweyo, kwaye oku, ezinye iingcali zikholelwa, zandulele ukuphumelela kwangoku kwintrakthi yegesi.

Kukho ingqungquthela yokuba ukutyikitya kwesivumelwano sakutsha nje kukuthembisekanga kuphela ngokwemiqathango yemali yeGazprom, kodwa nangenxa yokufumana izixhobo zokuphuhliswa kwamanye amacandelo oqoqosho lwamazwe omabini. Kucwangciswe ukuqhuba iindidi ezongeziweyo zophuhliso kwiziseko zophuhliso (umzekelo, ukwakhiwa kwebhuloho ngaphesheya koMlambo wase-Amur), iiprojekthi zezemali ezinxulumene nokukhenketho kunye nenkxaso yoluntu kubantu abadala. Intsebenziswano yaseRussia-yaseTshayina ingazinyuka kwimimandla, ngokukodwa apho ezo zinto ziphambili zegesi eziphambili ziza kubalwa.

Indawo yokujonga

Ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba ukutsayina isivumelwano phakathi kweTshayina neRashiya kwi-gas supply kunye nesivumelwano sokuba ukwakhiwa kwepayipi yegesi eChina kuya kuqaliswa ngokukhawuleza kuyisiganeko esibaluleke kakhulu kulo lonke iplanethi. Oko, abahlalutyi bakholelwa, baya kudibanisa uqoqosho lwamazwe omabini kwaye baya kufaka wonke umntu ininzi yezibonelelo. Kukho ingqungquthela emacaleni omabini amacandelo avumelekileyo ukuba enze isivumelwano kuphela.

Ukuba kwakungekho, isivumelwano asiyi kusayinwa. Ngoko ke, abahlalutyi bakholelwa, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba iRashiya neChina ziqale zilungiswe kwisiphumo. Kwisiza sephephandaba laseTshayina kwakuphando phakathi kwabasebenzisi. Umbuzo wawungowokuthi: "Yintoni ebaluleke kakhulu kuwe - eyona nto yokusayina isivumelwano phakathi kweRussian Federation kunye ne-PRC okanye inzuzo yezoqoqosho?" Uninzi lwabasebenzisi bakhetha ukhetho lokuqala. Ngako oko, sinokuthi urhulumente we-PRC ubonise iimfuno zabemi ngandlela-thile. Kwakhona, abahlalutyi bakholelwa, isivumelwano segesi siza kunceda amazwe omabini azive ethembele ngakumbi ekuxazululeni imiba yophuhliso lwe-Asia-Pacific. Xa ukwakhiwa kwepayipi yegesi eChina, ngoko iRashiya iya kuba nokwandisa ubunzima bayo bezopolitiko.

Umbono ongathembekiyo

Kukho inzululwazi phakathi kweengcali ukuba kwakungeyona inzuzo eRashiya ukutyikitya isivumelwano segesi neChina. Ilizwe lethu, ngokubambisana nabalandeli beli ngcamango, liye laphumelela into ethile ngokwexabiso, kodwa ilahlekile ngokwemigangatho yokunikezelwa kwegesi. Apha sithetha ngendawo yokuthatha okanye ukuhlawula (oko kuthetha ukuba "thabatha okanye uhlawule"), leyo iGaprom ngokuqhelekileyo iquka kwiikontraka zayo. Iingcali zikholelwa ukuba le nto ayikwazi ukuba khona kwisivumelwano esisayinwe phakathi kweRashiya neChina.

Oku kungakhokelela ekubeni iRashiya, eyakha izakhiwo ezinokuthengwa kwegesi ebiza, iya kubakho ukungafuni ukuyixhaphaza. Ukwakhiwa kwepayipi yegesi kwiChina kunokuba kungenakunceda. Ngenxa yoko, urhulumente uya kunyanzelwa ukuba afune imali ukuze ahlawule iindleko ezikhoyo.

I-gas pipeline iya kuyenza njani

Kucingwa ukuba inkunkuma yegesi eya kwiChina iya kufakwa kwiAltai. Ukuba ukhangele imbali yobudlelwane baseRashiya nabaseTshayina kumba wegesi, kuvela ukuba le modeli yaqwalaselwa emva kwee-90. Iprojekti yepayipi yegesi eya eChina ikhona ixesha elide. Umbuzo wawungowamaxabiso kuphela, kodwa ngoku, xa ugqityiwe, iingcali zikholelwa, mhlawumbi ukuba amaqela kwisivumelwano aya kuqaliswa ukuphumeza ukubeka iibhobho kwiAltai. Iimpawu eziphambili zepayipi yegesi zilandelayo. Ubude bomgwaqo omkhulu buya kuba yi-2.6 km km, amandla-malunga neebhiliyoni ezingama-cubic cubic meters. Oku kuya kuvumela ukuhambisa igesi kwiindawo ezikhoyo zokuvelisa kwindawo yaseYamal. Ukongeza kwipayipi ye-"Altai" ye-gas, i-China kunye ne-Russia ziceba ukulungiselela ukuhanjiswa kweoli kwenye isebe. Kuya kuba necandelo laseYakutia-Vladivostok kunye necandelo kwicandelo laseChina ngaseBlagoveshchensk. Ukuphuhliswa kwintsimi ebalulekileyo yale yesebe - i-Chayandinskoye-iya kuqalwa, ngokwezicwangciso zamazwe amabini, ngo-2019. Eli cwangciso lombhobho werhasi kwiChina lubonakala ngeengcali ezininzi ezinengqiqo kwaye zisebenzayo.

Indlela isivumelwano esiya kuchaphazela ngayo ezinye iimarike

Ngokwabanye bezoqoqosho, isivumelwano esisayinwe phakathi kweRashiya neChina ngeke sichaphazele kakhulu ulwalamano lwegesi phakathi kweGazprom neYurophu. Kwiintlobo ezininzi kuba amazwe e- EU ngokusondeleyo angakwenza umgangatho wokulondolozwa kwamandla kwaye aqale ukuchitha igesi engaphantsi. Isivumelwano phakathi kweRashiya kunye neRiphabhlikhi yabantu baseChina, iingcali zithi, azizange zibe yinto ekhethekileyo, kuba imicimbi yeemeko, ngokusemgangathweni, inengqiqo ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yezicwangciso ezivakaliswe kwiminyaka edlulileyo. Kwaye i-"Altai" yegesi yepayipi eChina ayiyona iprojekthi entsha.

Kwakhona, abahlalutyi bathi, akukho mfuneko yokubona ukunxibelelana ngokuthe ngqo phakathi kwezityholo eziseRashiya ngenxa yeemeko e-Ukraine. Ubudlelwane phakathi kweRashiya neTshayina, ngoko, awunalo imeko ecacileyo yezopolitiko. Ezinye iingcali zaseYurophu ziqinisekile: I-Russia icwangcise ukusayina isivumelwano kunye neChina ixesha elide phambi kweziganeko ezikhoyo kwipropathi yomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle.

Umbono wase-US

Abanye abahlaziyi baseMelika bazimisele ukubuza iimfuno zaseRashiya ngokusayina isivumelwano segesi kunye neChina, enokusetyenziswa kwayo iinjongo zeRussian Federation ukuba zikhuselwe ngakumbi kwizigwebo ngamazwe aseNtshona. Iingcali ezivela eUnited States zikholelwa ukuba akuyiyo yonke into ecacileyo kwixabiso lesivumelwano, njengoko kubonakala ngathi: ngoluvo lwabo, i-China iya kuhlawula ngaphantsi kwi-Gazprom kunokwenziwa, umzekelo, amazwe aseYurophu. Ukuqhubela phambili kulo, iRashiya, abahlalutyi bakholelwa, kodwa benza izivumelwano. Kwaye i-China, ngokunjalo, iphumelele ukusayinwa kwekhontrakthi - zombini ngokwemali, kwaye ngokubhekiselele kokungena kweendawo eziphambili zegesi. Ngako oko, amaMelika akholelwa, yonke into aseRashiya eyifumeneyo yithuba lokubonisa iYurophu ithuba lokunciphisa ukunikezwa kwegesi. Ukongeza, abahlalutyi baseUnited States bathi, iRashiya ayinakunyuswa ukuba iqwalasele ukhetho oluvumelekile xa ukuxhomekeka kwezoqoqosho kwiChina kuya kuba mkhulu kunoYurophu. Kwaye kufuneka kuqwalaselwe le nto xa kwakhiwa umbhobho wegesi eChina, iGazprom.

Ubume bekhontrakthi

Ngoko, umbane wegesi eChina uza kunika ummelwane waseRussia ngegesi kwisixa sama-38 billion cubic meters ngonyaka. Ngaba le nto ininzi okanye encinane? Masibuyele kubalo-manani malunga nesakhiwo segesi yendalo engamaRashiya kumazwe ahlukeneyo ehlabathini. Ngo-2013, i-Gazprom yathumela i-196 ibhiliyoni yamamitha ayi-cubic cubit of fuel ngokusebenzisa iipayipi. Lo ngumlinganiselo ophezulu kuneminyaka eyisixhenxe. Abathengi abaqaqambileyo begesi baseRashiya bangamazwe angaphandle. Ngo-2012, bathenga i-138.8 billion cubic meters of fuel. Abaphambili abathumeli beerhasi baseRashiya baseJamani, eTurkey naseItali. Ngako-ke, ii-64.4 billion zeekhijitri zamatrikhi zithunyelwa kumazwe e-CIS kunye namazwe aseBaltic ngo-2012. Kubonakala ukuba ixabiso elizayo legesi elineChina li malunga ne-20% yee-Indicators zangoku. Iimakethi zaseTshayina zingaphinde zithathele isiqingatha sezinto ezithandwayo kumazwe angumakhelwane kunye nangaphezulu kwekota - ezivela kubathengi baseYurophu (ukuba sithatha njengezikhombisi ze-2012). Umbuzo wukuthi kungekudala i-gas yombane iyakhiwa eKhina, ngeAltai.

Kutheni iChina ifuna igesi yaseRussia?

Ezinye iingcali ziqinisekile: I-China idinga igesi yaseRussia engaphantsi kweRashiya - ukuthumela ngaphandle. Imiba ephambili yale meko yimiba idibene noqoqosho lwe-PRC kunye nesimo semvelo yeli lizwe. Ngo-2013, malunga neyesithathu yegesi e-China yayingumthombo welizwe. Isabelo samafutha angaphandle, njengoko abahlalutyi bathi, eChina ikhula lonke ixesha, njengoko ukwanda kweemfuno zasekhaya. Ukuba ngo-2012 isabelo segesi ekusebenziseni amandla eChina sasingu-5.4%, ngoko ngo-2014 isibalo kulindeleke sibe ngu-6.3%.

Ngokweziganeko zorhulumente we-PRC, ngowama-2015 umnotho welizwe uya kufuna i-230 billion cubic meter of fuel. Ukuveliswa kwegesi yeChina akuyona into enhle. Ziyakhula (ngo-12% ngonyaka), kodwa kungekukhawulezileyo njengokusetyenziswa kwayo (ngo-18% ngonyaka). Ubume bemeko kubalulekile. I-China idinga ukuguqulwa kumafutha abangela ukuba umonakalo omncinci kwimvelo. I-Gas, ngokwezinye iingcali, iyona ndlela ingcono kakhulu. Ukongezelela, ngokukhawuleza isicwangciso esihle sepayipi yegesi eya kwiChina iya kuvela.

Ngaba iRashiya inokuncintisana?

Ngoku ababini abanikezeli begesi yendalo eChina baseTurkmenistan (ngo-2012 leli lizwe linikezelwa malunga ne-20 billion cubic meter of fuel to China) naseQatar. Kwiminyaka ezayo, iingcali zikholelwa ukuba, ukuthumela amazwe ngaphandle kwiphabliki yaseSoviet inokufikelela kuma-bhiliyoni angama-65. Abanye abathengisi begesi e-China yi-Australia, iMalaysia, i-Indonesia ne-Yemen. Kubonakala ukuba okwangoku iRashiya ingumntu ongaphandle kwi-rating, kwaye yena, xa efumene ipayipi yerhasi eChina, kuya kufuneka abe ngumqhubi okhuselekileyo kwamanye amazwe.