Iindleko zokuvelisa oyile kumazwe. Ixabiso Iindleko oli ehlabathini

Ioli, ngokokulingana dollar negolide, yenye zokunqika zinamandla yommiselo kwezoqoqosho. Kuba ethembisayo iidipozithi yeoli rhoqo kuqhutywa imfazwe phakathi kwamazwe, ezinye iiyunithi karhulumente indawo ngabanye. Energy kubume bayo bobabo kumashishini kudidi stranoobrazuyuschih njengoko impumelelo kulo mmandla kukhokelela ekuqaleni kwiindawo ezininzi zemisebenzi eli lizwe. Okukhona ilizwe nako ukuwutsala "igolide black", iindleko zokuvelisa yayo, kokukhona ithuba ukuba urhulumente ukuchuma kwezoqoqosho kunye ukoyisa yobume olumandla kwimarike yehlabathi.

Ixabiso Iindleko resource zemveliso amazwe

Iindleko zokuvelisa oyile yohluka kakhulu ngokwamazwe. Umzekelo, e-Saudi Arabia amafutha iindleko zokuvelisa ayidluli $ 10 umphanda. ERashiya, eli nani isusela ukusuka iidola-30 ukuya kuma-40. E Melika kubalulekile kwezinye iingingqi ifikelela kwizinga ka 60-70 zeerandi. Ekubeni imeko Canada ngamnye. Xa ekuphuhliseni ngwane oyile kufuneka achithe phezu komyalelo zeerandi 120-150 umphanda.

Ingaba imeko kubeka "shale revolution" eUnited States phantsi sihlaselwa?

Imeko kunye namaxabiso kwi orhwebo lwe-oyile kunye iindleko zokuvelisa oyile ngamazwe, ingakumbi eUnited States, ngokutsho inani elikhulu ngokwaneleyo leengcali, angafiki i "shale revolution". Ukuba ixabiso le a Umphanda oyile liphuma kufutshane uphawu $ 80 kwixa elizayo, uya kuvelisa lutho. Ukusebenza neziphumo ezibi ngokwakhe akukho mntu ofuna. Iindleko aphantsi zegolide abamnyama kunye neendleko eziphezulu umsebenzi kuphuhliso ioli kuvula indlela eya imarike ihlabathi amazwe afana ne-Indiya kunye neTshayina. Ukuba ixabiso energy kusithwa ixabiso $ 30, umdlali enkulu, njengoko Russia uya kunyanzeleka ngaphandle emarikeni. Indlela kuphela phandle - na ekuqaleni ukuphunyezwa kumazwe oyile kwi lwemali zabo ngaphandle ebhekisele dollar.

Kwelinye icala ingqekembe kukuba iindleko uluntu zokuvelisa oyile avakalisa ngamazwe ayikho actual. uphuhliso ngendlela of iidipozithi amatsha ezimbiwa, iphucula yaye kunciphisa iindleko zobugcisa kwemveliso. Amazwe amaninzi ungakwazi ukumelana imithwalo eziphezulu kakhulu ukusuka ukuhla kwamaxabiso oli ehlabathini.

Iindleko zophuhliso Table of a Umphanda ioli ngamazwe

Makhe sifunde etafileni kukho Umphanda indleko oyile kwi nganye lamazwe ezivelisa ehlabathini.

Ukusuka itafile kucacile ukuba unentembelo zonke orhwebo lwe-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe uvakalelwa ngathi oko Saudi Arabia. Kwaye ukuba i nxaxheba ukufunda kuOPEC, leyo walile ukunciphisa umthamo kwimveliso ye-oyile. Ukuwa kwamaxabiso, nto leyo ekhokelela ukuba eyoyikekayo ithi ezininzi, akukho kuyoyikisa. abahlalutyi abaninzi bacinga ukuba loo nto kuba nje ufuna ukuba kuchithwe ilizwe ukusuka kwibala yehlabathi kontanga yayo engundoqo.

Le tafile yamanani ibonisa indlela data esibonisa nendleko Umphanda ioli ngaphandle irhafu kaNondyebo kaRhulumente, kwaye ngaphandle kokuba iindleko ekhaya, ezinye iindleko ezincinane. Apha kunokwenzeka ukuba bajolise ingqalelo yokuba eRashiya ixabiso ioli ukhandwa-55% yerhafu. E Melika, eli candelo lomsebenzi phantse rhafu kwaye, ngenxa yoko, iinkampani zabucala kufuneka ithemba elihle kuphuhliso kunye neemeko imveliso egqwesileyo kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe. inkxaso evela kurhulumente ludlala indima ebalulekileyo.

Iinkcukacha iindleko zamafutha kwi US

e US iindleko zamafutha yahluka ngokuxhomekeka ngokubonakalayo kwi indawo kunye nobuchwepheshe ethile imveliso isizukulwana kusetyenziswa. Ngoko ke, ngo-2012 iinkampani ezinkulu kwemigodi American echithe malunga $ 100 kubuxhakaxhaka ezisetyenziswayo kakhulu kwimveliso ye-oyile shale. Ngowe-2015, eli nani bema kwi-30 zeerandi. Abameli kwiinkampani ze-oyile zabucala ngokungekho bathi umbulelo ngcono ecwangcisiweyo yaye ixesha elide kubuxhakaxhaka bokuvelisa ioli, bakwazi ukufikelela ngemfano $ 22 umphanda. Ukugcinwa ioli ukuvelisa izityalo esebenzayo ixabisa isiqingatha ngaphantsi. Fumanisa kanye oko nendleko Umphanda yeoli eUnited States, hayi kunokwenzeka. Bonke baya kuba kubonakala ekuhambeni kwexesha, kunye nophuhliso imeko orhwebo lwe-oyile.

Liyintoni ithemba ngenxa US?

Ukulinganisa iindleko zemveliso ye Umphanda yeoli eMelika, iingcali ezininzi musani ukuyeka ndisazibuza loo mbuzo, yintoni kanye ehlabathini isalathiso ixabiso lemarike yemveliso lwezibaso iya kuba anisizakali kuko kurhulumente. Ngokutsho manani, enye yee-arhente inkulu, 4% kuphela yeoli eziveliswe ngalo mzuzu abaphesheya inzuzo. imali enkulu e North Dakota basebenza ngempumelelo yaye siqhubeke ukuphuhlisa namhlanje. Ukongeza, rhoqo ziyahlolisiswa imihlaba emitsha kwaye uhlolo iidipozithi ezinokwenzeka. Ummandla aveza imveliso eUnited States - i District Mackenzie, apho kwiindleko Umphanda ioli liphuma ngentla $ 28. nempembelelo enkulu nkqubo US nelelalela qhinga zamafutha. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwabemi preliminary, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, oko kwanele ukubonelela zonke iimfuno likarhulumente kule minyaka mithathu izayo.

Yeyiphi iindleko zokuvelisa yeoli eRashiya?

Iindleko oyile eRashiya abunjwe hayi kuphela ingakumbi imveliso yalo, uninzi kuyo igwetyelwe na iindleko iqhotyoshelweyo. yonke imali yengeniso kunokuba nakanjani ityumbe Rosneft Inani u-100%. Ngelo afanayo 55% yengeniso kutsalwa kwi imisebenzi yokuhlawula irhafu nerhafu yezonwabisi karhulumente, irhafu yokuqhawula kunye namasiko. 10% yengeniso epheleleyo ichithwa kwiinkalo zophando lokuqala, ukufakelwa kwezixhobo oyile zokomba, kwi khangela abathengi kunye nokugqitywa kweemvumelwano nabo. Yongeza yenkcitho iyonke ka-8.4% yeendleko kwe Umphanda ekuthuthweni ukuba abathengi kunye 7.6% ngenxa lokuyimfihlo zonke izibonelelo Rosneft (koomatshini, izakhiwo, izixhobo, rigs, njalo njalo). Le nkampani, ukongeza imveliso yezamandla, nangoku ithenga kwaye kwiinkampani yomntu wesithathu, ukuba uhlawulela processing of ubuncinane 8.6% inzuzo. inzuzo Net emva ukuphunyezwa "igolide black" ingaphantsi kwe-10%.

Iindleko oyile eRashiya, nangona eli nani eyamkelekileyo zisukela ku-12 ukuya kowama-25 eerandi, phi. Kuthathelwa ingqalelo iindleko yengqeshiso yomhlaba okanye ukuthenga amalungelo ukusetyenziswa kwayo, iindleko yokwakha iziseko utsalo ngokupheleleyo amafutha, inani ifunyenwe kwi uluhlu $ 70 umphanda, nto leyo umyalelo sezingeni obungaphezu America.

Kutheni amazwe OPEC musa ukunciphisa isiqulatho oyile kunye namaxabiso aphantsi?

Iindleko oyile e Saudi Arabia i kwanala ehlabathini. Kuyahluka kuluhlu ukususela-4 ukuya kwezi-5 zeerandi. Oku kuvumela uRhulumente ukuba ukumelana kwamanzi kakhulu amaxabiso kwimarike ehlabathini. Ukwala ukunciphisa umthombo wamandla isizukulwana kukhokelele ukuhla kwamaxabiso "ngegolide black". Eso sigqibo ugwetyelwayo kukuba kuphela Saudi Arabia kodwa onke amazwe OPEC baxhomekeke ngokupheleleyo kushishino oyile. Urhulumente kuphela loo nto ixhomekeke kwimveliso amafutha - yi Indonesia, apho inzuzo ezidaleka kushishino lwezokhenketho, ishishini igesi kunye maplanga. Onke amanye amalungu OPEC ukuya ithile enoba kukancinane okanye, ukuba baphile ngenxa ioli. Kuxhomekeka nakwizinga isusela ukusuka kuma-48 ukuya 97%. Ngoko ke sigqibo: banikwa iindleko esezantsi oyile kumazwe ahlukeneyo ekuhlaleni inxaxheba, ke andimvumeli kwi imeko kwimarike yehlabathi. ukuba Ukunciphisa umthamo imveliso, ukubetha kuqoqosho yakhe. Izigqibo zenziwa kwi-reverse: Imveliso kakhulu amafutha, ngcono ilizwe ngokwayo kunye nabantu bayo.

Kutheni imfuno ioli olukhulayo, kwaye ixabiso yeoli ukuwa?

Kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, imfuno lomhlaba ioli liye lenyuka izihlandlo eziliqela. Oku lula yi kuphuhliso China ne India. amazinga aphezulu ebango ziye zakhokelela ekubeni phakathi ku-ehlotyeni 2014 ixabiso oli afikelela kwi $ 117. Le meko akazange abe manani, ngokuthi phakathi ixabiso ekwindla umphanda nyebelele ku $ 60. I 'igolide black "njengokuba kwakunjalo, yaye uhlala ethandwayo. An into umdla kukuba ukuwa kwamaxabiso amafutha ukuba akagwetyelwa ngokucacileyo ngenxa yezizathu zoqoqosho, urhulumente uyaqhubeka ukuphuhlisa, iimfuno zabo zikhule. Kuphela e China kunyaka ophelileyo iye ukhululwe izithuthi malunga nezigidi ezingama-30. Okunye okunika umdla kukuba iindleko zamafutha phantse ayitshintshanga lizwe.

Ukunyuka yonikezelo kwangaphezulu imfuno emandla isanda

Ekubeni umdla orhwebo lwe-oyile likhule, unobangela amaxabiso ukuwa, mhlawumbi, waba ukwanda umthamo izindululo elingaphezulu imfuno skaknuvshy. Izinga resource amandla umsebenzi lokutsala ukunyuka e Saudi Arabia nase-United States. A uphawu ukuyilwa iindleko zamafutha inyanzela imeko yezopolitiko kunye ungquzulwano phakathi eRashiya naseUkraine. Imbali ibonisa ukuba naluphi na utshintsho geopolitics abahlala kummandla ebalulekileyo yehlabathi kukhokelela ekwandeni kwamaxabiso ombane.

Ukuhla iindleko zemveliso oli ehlabathini - akukho iholo

Ukuphuculwa ubuchwepheshe yemveliso oyile kuye kwakhokelela ekuthotyweni iindleko zamafutha. Uluvo apha kukuba uku rhweba States kwafuneka fuck ingeniso elungileyo evela meko. Ngokwahlukileyo kuzo zonke kulindelekileyo, amaxabiso epetroli emakethe zomhlaba inciphisiwe. Uphuhliso lwecandelo inciphise neendleko lophuhliso oyile zikhokelele ilahleko. Izizathu zoku ezininzi:

• Kwesiqalekiso ukwayo nxamnye Iraq, ukwandisa isabelo amafutha yayo kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe.
• Ukubuyiselwa Libya kunye ishishini ioli.
• Ukuhanjiswa ukuba kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe yokuba ukuthutyeleziswa yeoli ngamaxabiso lifinyele.
• Ukwanda kwimveliso ye-oyile engaqhelekanga (shale, phezu kwesanti kunye enzima).

Nciphisa inzuzo kwimveliso ye-oyile

Ngokuwa ixabiso esinokwenziwa ngonaphakade. Kanye ehlabathini iindleko yeoli ayiyi kuba phantse kulingana iindleko zepetroli ezivenkileni, kusenokwenzeka ukuba alindele ithuba. Apha kusebenza into yokuba urhulumente nganye inayo imveliso yayo amafutha ngexabiso elimisiweyo. utshintsho intengo nefuthe jikelele yengeniso yombuso yaye inzuzo kwimveliso ye-oyile. Enyanisweni, ngaphantsi ukuba achithe kwimveliso amafutha Gulf States. Oku kungenxa kubunzulu encinane ezimbiwa kunye kufutshane kummandla wophuhliso amafutha ukuya ekupheleni yabathengi. Iindleko zokwakha kunye nokulondolozwa zizinto ubugcisa engephi. Iindleko liphezulu kwemveliso ye-oli ehlabathini e Melika, njengoko isebenza kuphela imithombo shale. Kunzima kakhulu ukuvelisa nzima ngokwasezimalini. Ukusuka lwenkcubeko wala phantse ehlabathini lonke. Ngokutsho umhlaziyi, inzuzo ye kubaswa uya kuhlala kwinqanaba ukuba ixabiso lemarike lehlabathi ndiyindla akuyi kuwa ngezantsi $ 75. Enyanisweni le meko yahluke: nangona amaxabiso niyigqibe inani kwi $ 50, eMelika uyaqhubeka uphuhliso olusebenzayo lwe zezimbiwa.

endaweni yesiphelo

Iindleko yeoli eRashiya liphantsi kakhulu kunoko eMelika. Nakuba kunjalo, i-US iyaqhubeka ukwandisa imveliso amafutha, iingcali ezinxulumene ngqo ungquzulwano kwezopolitiko kwihlabathi lanamhlanje. Ngoko ke, ngo-Oktobha 2014 umthamo kwimveliso amafutha yaba million 8.9 imiphanda, ngoko ngo-2015 sihlelwe ukunyusa ku 9.4 yezigidi. It undercurrents ukufumanisa imeko kwimarike oli ehlabathini, imiba yezoqoqosho, eli xesha angekhoyo ngokupheleleyo.