Isivumelwano Paris: kwiqondo lobushushu emhlabeni kufuneka bavuke ngaphezu kweqondo 2

NgoDisemba kunyaka ophelileyo, sonke sikwazi ukubona umbono ongaqhelekanga umanyano ngamazwe. Lokwenene ezintsha Agreement Paris on Climate Change, nto leyo sisayinwe ngabameli kumazwe 195, ubeke usukelo ukunciphisa kukufudumala okukhawulezayo kwehlabathi. Ngokutsho kolu xwebhu, ku 2100, ubushushu lwehlabathi anyuke akukho ngaphezulu kwe-2 degrees Celsius (okanye 3.6 °). Nangona kanye into yale mvumelwano impumelelo ebalulekileyo abantu, abanye abagxeki baye bathi ukuba ubushushu umda kunokuba ngokwesigqibo esicalanye. Ngapha koko, sibheka njani na ukuba ihlabathi liza kukwazi ukunamathela kwisicwangciso?

Yintoni isifundo esitsha,

Uphononongo entsha kuhlolwa kwizibophelelo ezenziwe yi kwamazwe aye asayina isivumelwano Paris, yaye iziphumo ngokwenene kakuhle kakhulu. Imeko mhlawumbi yenye apho ikwiqondo lobushushu kwihlabathi okunene lisingisa degrees 2.6-3.1 ngo-2100. Ukwenza izinto mbi, isixa carbon ezifunekayo ukugcina utshintsho lobushushu degrees-2 kuphela ukufikelela esiphelweni ngo-2030.

Paris yesiVumelwano isiseko obunokuguquka inguqu ixesha elide ukuya kuluntu ephantsi-carbon. Oku kuchazwe yi Jerry-rogele - Fellow of the International Institute for Applied Systems Uhlahlelo kunye umbhali owayephambili kolu phando. Uhlalutyo izazinzulu lubonise ukuba la manyathelo kufuneka ziqiniswe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ithuba elihle ukugcina global warming ngezantsi degrees-2.

zigigaba

Iqela lophando wasebenza ngeziganeko carbon wokunciphisa ezahlukeneyo ngokusekelwe iimodeli ezikhoyo computer. Eyona idumileyo kubonisa ukuba Agreement Paris iza kwenziwa yaye iya kuqhubeka emva 2030, xa ixesha isiqinisekiso iya kufika esiphelweni. Kucacile ukuba uluntu kufuneka ntlanga wanda kwi egesi ngaphandle kwezo zikhankanywe kwisivumelwano.

Izazinzulu zibonisa ukuba emva 2030 ezifunekayo amanyathelo kakhulu ngqongqo kakhulu. Omnye wabo - ukuncitshiswa egesi zehlabathi kangange 3-4% ngonyaka. Kakade ke, kungenzeka kakhulu. Umzekelo, China sele uqalile umsebenzi omkhulu-iscale ukusetyenziswa kwamandla omoya. Amanye amazwe asebenzise amandla enyukliya kwaye ehlaziyekayo, ukunciphisa kakhulu ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.

nezinye iingxaki

Nakowuphi na umzekelo, oku sifundo kuchazwa ezinxulumene ne-Paris Isivumelwano enye ingxaki. sele kwenziwe iindawo ezininzi ehlabathini umonakalo noqhekeko, kwaye ayiyi kuzohlwaya, nangona ukuba siza kukwazi ukugcina kwamaqondo obushushu phakathi degrees ezimbini, okanye hayi.

Uphando lwakutsha nje lufumanise ukuba iindawo ezininzi yakuMbindi Mpuma kunye naseMntla Afrika uya kuwo ekupheleni kwenkulungwane ngenxa lobushushu eliphezulu. Le meko akayi kutshintsha, kungakhathaliseki ukuba abantu uzama ukuthatha. Omnye umzekelo - indlela yokukhulisa Arctic. Le meko unique climatological intlomo yasentla, nto leyo ekhokelela ukunyibilika komkhenkce, umkhenkce elwandle ngesantya ibonwe. Lezolimo ngokukhawuleza kwimo engqongileyo, nto leyo uyafudumala ngokukhawuleza.

Yonke le miba ezihambelana khona ngoku, ngoko ke isiVumelwano Paris akakwazi ukuyeka okanye isantya phantsi. Oku, ngelishwa, kuthetha ukuba zonke ezi nguqu ziya kuqhubeka, nokuba isivumelwano ukuphumeza injongo yayo.

elizayo ihlabathi

Ukuba amazwe bayaqhubeka batshise amafutha eziphili zamandulo, njengoko kwakunjalo kude kube ngoku, ikamva zehlabathi - a kunokuba YeApocalypse. I-Arctic uyafudumala ukuya ku-20 degrees Celsius, ngelixa abanye behlabathi - isiqingatha ixabiso layo ngoku. Oku kuya kukhokelela okukhawulezayo ukunyuka komgangatho wolwandle ezinkulu, nto leyo kwizixeko ezininzi ezingaselunxwemeni ziya kukhukuliswa. Umhlaba balahlekelwe-17% ubutyebi babo iyonke. Ibuhlungu into eninzi yabantu, kodwa Afrika kungenzeka ukuba indawo olubi deployment meko. Uyakwazi ukugcina ihlabathi, kodwa kwabanye ntonje kakhulu emva kwexesha.