Ukukhula euro (2014) eRashiya

Kwiinyanga zokuqala ezimbalwa ka-2014 engange ixabiso ngokuchasene zezimali ezinkulu ehlabathini, kuquka i Euro. uya lwemali yaseYurophu olulodwa ngokunxulumene eRashiya kwixesha elizayo njani? Ngaba simele silindele ukuba euro iza kuqhubeka bekhula? Konke kuxhomekeke kwizinto ezininzi, uhlobo lwezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko.

Regulator kunye neGauteng

Izinto uzibonayo ekhusini ukubonisa amanqaku exchange - isiphumo borhwebo currency, zabanjwa kunye inxaxheba Central Bank. Ixabiso wabonisa amanani - indibanisela iimpembelelo inani elikhulu iindlela ngemali, kuquka nalawo asetyenziswa ngamaziko lwehlabathi kuqoqosho, kuquka i-Central Bank. Enye izixhobo eziphambili ukuphembelela zebhanki Russian kwi emarikeni - kuyavumeleka urhwebo band. Ukuba imali engange phantsi kakhulu okanye babebiza imali, i-Central Bank liqalisa ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa imali ukugcina amaxabiso ezifunekayo. Kwenzeka ngoncedo lwemali ukuthintela bomelele kakhulu uphelelo engange.

Emva umthamo wayo lidlula $ 350 yezigidi, kwindlela ngaphakathi kwimida yayo yasiwa phezulu yi cents-5. Izenzo ezinjalo we Central Bank - yinto eqhelekileyo ukuba uqoqosho, kodwa kwiinyanga zokuqala ka-2014, le ntshukumo zaba ubukhulu becala unilateral. izinga Exchange band lwaye, luphawu buthathaka ngcembe le engange. Ezi zibalo liciko: xa kuthelekiswa amaxabiso kunyaka ophelileyo izinga Russian "somthi" ngokunxulumene zezimali ezinkulu ehlabathini, yawa-10 ekhulwini. zemo ecacileyo euro lwedola ukukhula kubonwa.

Factor yokukhula koqoqosho

Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, le engange, njengoko umthetho, sinyuka esihla isikali lwemali phantse kwintsebenziswano ngokuthe ngqo kunye namaxabiso ioli. Ngoku, ke, kuxhomekeke izinga lezalathi zoqoqosho. Okokuqala, kuba loo lokukhula. Nangona ixabiso le a Umphanda ioli ezinzileyo kwi $ 100 nangaphezulu, GDP Russia zinyuke ngokucothayo kakhulu. Kuqikelelo lwemozulu 2014 - kubonakalisa ukwenyuka kwe-1.5 ekhulwini, nto leyo ngaphantsi kwe-avareji jikelele.

iirhafu Low nakanjani nefuthe kwiqondo ukutshintshiselana engange ukuya zemali phambili. ukukhula euro ngo-2014 nxamnye yamaphepha Russian, ngaloo ndlela, usenakho kuba phezulu-10 ekhulwini. Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso lokwenziwa komsebenzi engange ngokuchasene euro to abemi abaqhelekileyo Russian, ngokutsho kwiingcali, luphantsi: amaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi luboniswa lwemali kazwelonke. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, umzekelo, ukusuka-90, xa iitags inani eninzi kwanikelwa ngo "y. e. ". Kukho ithuba ukunyuka kuphela ixabiso iimpahla kwamanye amazwe, kodwa hayi ngaphezulu kwe-10 pesenti efanayo.

Authorities ahlale ethembeni

Urhulumente emelwe yi-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezeMali kwangaxeshanye akuthethi ukuba naziphi na iingxaki ukusuka nokwehla ukuziphawula ixabiso le engange kurhwebo exchange angaphandle ngo-2014. Ngokutsho amagosa eli sebe, kuba ukuhla ngeranti enzulu akukho zizathu ezikhethekileyo kwezoqoqosho, kunye nemilinganiselo yayo kunokwenzeka, ngendlela enye okanye omnye, uya kuhlala phakathi kwepaseji ebekwe yi-Central Bank. Nangona kunjalo, i-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezeMali ukunqanda ukuthetha malunga amathuba mkhuba umva: akuyi kubakho euro dollar, kwaye ekomelezeni engange.

Ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba imarike currency Russian wazuza uzinzo kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Kulo mba, ibhanki esembindini nakwizicwangciso 2015 ukuya ukulahla nokubeka esweni engange kwaye switsha kwi inflation targeting - kukhubazeko nokulungiswa umsebenzi kumanani isicwangciso sokukhula kwamaxabiso abathengi. Ngokuyenza, oku kuthetha yokuba imali yesizwe kwi "ezidadayo ezamahala", kodwa ngenxa iintsingiselo ezintle kwiminyaka yakutshanje intlokoma elomeleleyo kwenzeka, ngokutsho kulindelekileyo bezimali, akufanele.

Business ukuqapha

Mu kuya kwa nshita luvo egqubayo amaziko karhulumente, iinkampani zabucala, ingakumbi iibhanki bakhetha ukuba sibe nethemba njalo. Ngokutsho kwezinye iingcali, akazalani-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezeMali izakhiwo, ukuba buthathaka engange - yinto isenzeko systemic. Oku kwenzeka kuphela, kodwa emva kweenyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo. Amaxabiso e-oli kweso kuba nafuthe ngqo kwi engange. Yinto enye into: imfuno iwile kwemali yamazwe asakhasayo, kwaye, phezu koko, kukho ukwanda kakhulu lesi dollar, euro.

ERashiya, ngasendleleni, amacandelo kakhulu kuqoqosho kunganxulunyaniswa isakhiwo ilizwe kuhlobo esiphawuliweyo. Lo mkhuba - yehlabathi kwaye ikwanxulumene kwintlekele yehlabathi, emva koko uqoqosho asakhulayo akaqhotyoshelwanga elibonakalayo ekuphuhlisweni kakhulu. Ukongeza, le meko nzima kukuba abatyali xa imarike uqalisa "ukukhwela", emva koko uye kuthengisa engange kwi olo tshintshano. Ngomlinganiselo lwemali kazwelonke ka-Russia, ngaloo ndlela, ichaphazela into nasengqondweni. Abatyali ngokwesiko lithathwa engange ezingazinzanga, kwaye imali kuyo - kuyingozi.

Kodwa kungcono ukuba ukugcina engange

Nangona imikhuba emibi kwi ziingcali zemali musa ukucebisa baseRashiya ukwenza imali ngokubhekisele euro. Inyaniso yokuba iibhanki yethu zinika amazinga aphezulu inzala iidipozithi engange - malunga ne-10% ngonyaka. Ngokunxulumene amazwe abaxabise kudala abasekho. Ukuba, umzekelo, ukuba ukuvumela imali engange depreciate-10%, ngoko ke umtyali akayi kulahlekelwa nto. Ngokunxulumene nezibonisi kwamaxabiso yangoku sedipozithi ubungenza nayiphi na imeko kuluncedo ngumfuziselo imali yokugcina.

Ipesenti yemali imali efanayo ngokuyimfuneko walahleka ukuguqulwa. Noko ke, le "izibalo" ayikho kakhulu okwenyaniso, ukuba umntu uza ukuya kwamanye amazwe okanye ufumana umvuzo, kuxhomekeke umlinganiselo exchange angaphandle. Ngenxa yokuba ukukhula iya kuba euro, unyaka th 2014 kubonakala kakhulu enomtsalane ukuqokelelela imali kule mali ngenjongo zokufudukela kwelinye ilizwe.

Ityala - ngezwi baseYurophu

Ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano ixhomekeke kwi-nkqubo wolawulo wesizwe - i-Central Bank of Russia, ukuphuma euro, ke, luqinisekiswa kakhulu umsebenzi European Central Bank. Ngoku ke iziko mali ukhetha indlela ethambileyo kakhulu kulawulo yemarike yaye akuziva iindlela angaqhelekanga mpembelelo euro. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo kunegalelo ukuphucuka kwezoqoqosho ase ekuqaleni kuka-2014. Ukuba le kuqhubeka, umyinge wokuphelelwa lwemali olulodwa nxamnye nezinye yamaphepha zehlabathi kunye namathuba ephakamileyo ziya kwanda.

Ngokuphathelele nendawo ye euro kunye engange, apho kuza kudlala indima ngumba US dollar. Le khosi ye-currency Russian luxhomekeke ezinye ezimbini, okwangoku kukho ebonakalayo kwihlabathi. Akuthandeki ukuba euro ngokuchasene dollar ngo-2014 ziya zitenxe kakhulu ukusuka ixabiso amanqaku 1.4 (intlokoma eyomeleleyo akayi kuvumela elawula Central Bank). Ngoko ke, ukuba imali US iya kufikelela, umzekelo, 36 engange, ixabiso le-European ayidluli-50.

uqikelelo

Ezinye iingcali balindele ukuba imali engange ukomeleza kwimarike neebhanki ekupheleni kuka-2014, yaye ngenxa yokuba abemi kungcono ukuba luxakeke ukuyithenga up iidola ngumyinge kunye euro. Isizathu sokuba eli themba kwacaca - kumgaqo-Central Bank. Mkhuba ezimbi seyininzi ngo-2013, kufuneka ke ngoko ujike phakathi ku-2014. Phakathi zokujonga phambili amanani - 33 engange dollar ngalinye, 43,5 - euro nganye. Oku kwakhona ngenxa yeemeko zoqoqosho: kumazwe aphuhlileyo ye-EU kulindeleke ukunyusa umgangatho kwemfuneko impahla eyenziweyo eRashiya, kwakunye ukwanda kwemfuno ioli. Noko ke, umbuzo wokuba ingaba kuya kubakho ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwi euro, iingqikelelo ngo-2014 aziphazamiseki.

Kukho kwakhona kwinguqulo kule meko imaxongo yezoqoqosho akukho mfuneko kulwenza lungabi naxabiso olo engange (njengoko kwenzekayo, umzekelo, ngo-2008). Ke kukho ukuhla kakhulu GDP, ukungaphangeli wavuka kakhulu, kwaye ngenxa yokuba ukwehla elalindisindisa neendiza amacandelo ezininzi zoqoqosho Russian (ingakumbi ezithumela imveliso yazo kwiimalike). Ukongezelela, iingcali zikholelwa, ngelo xesha yibhanki eyongameleyo uchithe ukwehla malunga $ 200 billion, yaye namhlanje bekuya kuba ngcono ukuthumela imali ekhoyo ezinye iinjongo.

geopolitics

Yinto eyaziwayo ukuba "imali uthanda cwaka". Ngoko ke, nayiphi na indlela eluhamba ngayo uqoqosho lwehlabathi ebotshelelwe meko kwi kwezopolitiko. Namhlanje, ngumxholo ophambili kweli hlabathi - oku imeko Ukraine. Ukuba imimoya ubudlelwane phakathi Russia, eYurophu nase-United States kuwa, kwemali zokulinda ukuba ukubuyisela ukuba imilinganiselo ngoJanuwari noFebruwari. Noko ke, kule meko, musa ukulindela uxabiso elinqatyisiweyo engange nxamnye amazwe, ukususela, ngaphandle ombane-nkqubo uhlala impembelelo enkulu yentsingeiselo eninzi yoqoqosho kunokulomeleza dollar kanye euro. 2014 lonyaka kakhulu ukufumanisa ukuba zithwala eziphambili geopolitics kwixa elizayo.

Into esemqoka ukuba imarike eyayihamba

Le meko kakhulu Iyandikhathaza nawuphi na kwimarike yamazwe angaphandle kweli - is ndawonye. Movement kwimarike, nokuba euro okanye uphelelo engange, anike imiqondiso kubatyali ukwenza into, ukuba ukuthatha nasiphi na isigqibo. Noko ke, njengoko iingcali uqaphele, ukwakha Ingxelo ixesha elide kumazinga exchange - umsebenzi ngongenambulelo. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba ukuthelekelela ulwalathiso, okuninzi kuxhomekeke lweempembelelo inyathelo ukuba sizilindele nzima kakhulu. Kubalulekile ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba kwiimarike kunye noluntu ukufikelela kulwazi oluchanileyo malunga neenkqubo ibakho kuqoqosho.