Ixabiso Iindleko in US igesi ioli ngo-2014

amajelo eendaba ehlabathi ngokupheleleyo useza uluntu, eveza into yokuba "revolution shale" kuye kwenzeka eUnited States. Ngokusekelwe eziphi iinkalo ezi ngxelo ukuze ngokuphathelele kulo mba? Kukho, ingakumbi, ingcamango yokuba ixabiso US igesi kwimveliso ye-oyile ngo-2014 kwehla kakhulu kangangokuba ishishini American ukuba nezokukhupha "igolide abamnyama", lo mgaqo, musa Andikhathali ukuba amaxabiso ihlabathi yangoku le mveliso. nokuba ke kungavumelekileyo? Zeziphi izinto ezichaphazela iindleko zokuvelisa oyile shale ziinkampani US?

Yintoni na oyile shale

Okokuqala, kukho kuphambuko encinane theoretical nomba. Yintoni ioli shale? Ixabiso Iindleko imveliso siza ukumisela?

Into yokuba kukho eneneni iindidi ezimbini zamafutha ezikhoyo ngolwimi Russian kwi indoda kwinqanaba esitratweni igama eliqhelekileyo - "isileyiti". Okokuqala - oku imveliso, kwakunye umntu ethe yaveliswa ngendlela lwamandulo, uqulathwe umaleko ekhethekileyo kweentlobo komhlaba. Zibizwa ngokuba "zileyiti". Kodwa kukho nenye imveliso. Phantsi uhlobo olufanelekileyo yeoli yena kwakhona aqondwe zizileyiti ezinjalo, nezaziwa ngokuba "olunokutsha". Ba, enyanisweni, iqulathe imveliso iipropati efana kakhulu oyile - oyile shale. Kwaye kananjalo ubugcisa ezithile wachacha kwaye phantsi processing.

Ngoko, igama elithi "ioli shale" Inokuchazwa ngeendlela ezintathu. ezizezi:

--ntonye "ioli shale";

- analogu ikufutshane lohlobo yemveli yeoli, kodwa kwenzeka ngohlobo olwahlukileyo emasimini;

- kumbiwa shale nentlaka.

Njengoko imveliso, apho amafutha unako kuveliswa, isetyenziswe, ngaloo ndlela, le yesibini neyesithathu. Ngaphambi kokuhlolisisa iindleko zokuvelisa oyile shale, makhe uqaphele ukuba inani leengcali inombono ukuba iindleko ezinxulumene ne ekufumaneni nganye imveliso ezimbini ezibalwe ziyahluka kakhulu. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ioli ifunyenwe kwi-shale oyile, ezibizayo.

Apho kulele namafutha shale?

Kuqwalaselwa imiba echaphazela iindleko zamafutha shale, siza kufunda izinto nkcukacha ze iidiphozithi, apho umsebenzi ochaphazelekayo. Ngokutsho iingxelo eziliqela arhente okuhlalutya, eUnited States - inkokeli kwihlabathi oovimba kwezibonelelo zendalo, ngawo. The main Amasimi oyile, ezinxulumene igesi udidi, ulale baseMelika kwiphondo eTexas, xa yemihlaba kunxweme olusentshona kunye kumntla-mpuma lizwe. Kwakhona oovimba ebalulekileyo ebizwa ngokuba "kwentlabathi oyile", apho zifumaneka eKhanada.

Kukho iidipozithi ebonakalayo "shale" kunye nakwamanye amazwe amaninzi ehlabathini jikelele, kuquka eRashiya, kwakunye nezo amazwe ukuba obonakala kuqwalaselwa amagunya namhlanje eneji - iSlovakia, Poland, Ukraine. Uvavanyo amathuba sokubuyisa oyile shale kolwabelo olungalinganiyo phakathi neengcali. Ubukhulu becala ngenxa yokuba amanani evumela nokuhlaziya ezikumgangatho ophezulu, akusoloko ngaphaya, uqikelelo lwee-arhente eziliqela, ezibonisa, ingakumbi, isixa loovimba entsimini, aluchanekanga okanye ngokuphindelela ehlaziyiweyo.

Iimpawu iindleko

Ukuze ufumanise ukuba ingaba yintoni na iindleko eziqikelelweyo oyile ye-shale US, sibheka kuzo eziliqela imithombo zeengcali. inkcazelo epapashwe kwizifundo ezifanelekileyo olwenziwe kwiminyaka ezahlukeneyo, isinika data oluxubeneyo kakhulu. Kutheni? Ngaba yinyaniso into yokuba iindleko US kwimveliso ye-oyile shale kuxhomekeke ngqo kwi uhlobo olunganeno le mveliso (ngasentla, siye sabona ezimbini eziphambili)? Ngokusekelwe kule nkcazelo kwinani kwimithombo, oko.

Ngo-2012, iphephancwadi iTime yapapasha datha ilandelayo. Ba ngoko ke, ezingabo iintsingiselo zehlabathi. Noko ke, umbono oko kuba iindleko zamafutha shale eUnited States, olu lwazi angasinika.

Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwabemi ingcali, ngokusekelwe apho iphephancwadi iTime yapapashwa amanani, ukuveliswa 1 Umphanda oyile shale oyile ngo-2012 yaba malunga $ 100. Ngenxa yoko, i index ye yeoli ese ubuxoki phakathi maleko, akukho ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi, yaye ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha - 50 zeerandi. Ngenxa yoko, wavakalisa yi nathi ekuqaleni senqaku ingcamango yokuba ixabiso ioli ye-shale US nakwamanye amazwe kuxhomekeke uhlobo olunganeno ezithile imveliso kuqinisekisiwe, xa sithatha iinkcukacha ukwenzela unyaka ka-2012.

Oil eUnited States emhlabeni

Xa sithelekisa izinga okuphawulekayo kunyaka omnye kwabo ezibonisa iindleko zemveliso le hlobo kwezimbiwa eRashiya, umahluko, nkqu kwimeko imveliso enganeno kuyoba sobala. "Classical" kufunxwa ioli eRashiya ixabisa malunga $ 15. Kwaye e Saudi Arabia, endleleni, nokuba ayibizi kakhulu - malunga 8 Noko ke, phezu kwazo zonke ezo manani kunye neembono ziingcali 'diverge. Ngoko ke, oko izikhokelo kulinganisiwe kuphela.

Zeziphi iinkcukacha zakutshanje ngakumbi, kuba nyaka? Ukwanda okanye, ngenye indlela, iindleko eziqikelelwayo imveliso iye yehla eolini shale US? 2014 - unyaka ukuwa kwamaxabiso jikelele "igolide black". Ingaba kukho naluphi na ulwalamano phakathi isantya ioli shale kunye lomkhuba emarikeni?

Izimvo leengcali ngalo mba kakhulu ezahlukeneyo. Okokuqala, indlela eyahlukileyo kakhulu nokubala iindleko. Ikhrayitheriya leyo ebangela mkhulu kwengxoxo - irhafu gesi.

Kunye okanye ngaphandle irhafu?

Ezinye Osoqoqosho ubale iindleko shale yeoli eUnited States, ugxininisa into yokuba imveliso yalo ngokuxhomekeka kwirhafu lincinane. Liyinyaniso elokuba ngokuphathelele kwimveliso efanayo eziveliswa indlela emveli, kuyimfuneko ukuba ahlawule imirhumo yonke. Benefits kanye ngokunxulumene igesi ioli. ERashiya, umzekelo, kwakunye nakwamanye amazwe amaninzi, ekuthumeleni i "igolide black", elihambisana kumrhumo ngasentla.

Ukuba US kunye namazwe nezinye izalathi si zokunikwa iirhafu efana, ngoko, nokuba sesikuthathela kumanani ngo-2012, ngokutsho iingcali, neoli American ebeya kuba iindleko akuthandeki. Ke kaloku akuzange imveliso evela USA, ngenxa iinzuzo zerhafu ungakwazi ngempela, abahlalutyi bathi, iindleko ngeenxa $ 50 okanye ngaphantsi.

Kwelinye icala, kukho imbono ukuba uhlobo olufanelekileyo iintlawulo kwi-US wokulondoloza imali - i header engekho ebonakalayo xa ubalwa ngokubala iindleko ioli, njengoko imveliso isileyiti ekuveliseni US, belujolise kakhulu kurhwebo lwasekhaya. Kwaye ngenxa yokuba berhafu American ngokwabo "vumela" ngokwabo ipetroli cheap.

Lo mkhuba ukunciphisa iindleko?

Phakathi kweengcali na ithisisi ukuba kule minyaka eUnited States iindleko zamafutha shale uyawa. Isiseko Kwempikiswano - ukuphucula workability imveliso. Izimvo leengcali ngalo mbandela nayo lahlulwe. Kukho yingqikelelo ngokwendlela apho Umphanda oyile shale ngoku iindleko baseMerika malunga $ 48 - kwaye ungaphantsi ngokwenene ngaphezu avareji yehlabathi, abahlalutyi zibhalwe ngo-2012. Kodwa zilungiswe kwamaxabiso - kulo mgaqo, oko ungqinela ekunciphiseni iindleko zokuvelisa. Ngaphandle kokuba, kakade, uyavuma ukuba ozise United States ngowe-2012 iyafana-avareji ehlabathini (emva onke, amaMelika - inkokeli ekuzibonakaliseni kurhwebo lwehlabathi). Kwakhona, ukuba bakuthathele ingqalelo thina kufunxwa ioli ukusuka ongaphantsi, kungekhona shale yi processing zabo.

inzuzo imveliso kunye nexabiso yeoli

Njani na iindleko zamafutha shale eUnited States, amanye amazwe kunye namaxabiso jikelele "igolide black"? Izimvo leengcali, yaye eli xesha ayaba kakhulu. Kodwa kubalulekile ukufunda ukuba bafumane indlela kwabo imiba echaphazela iindleko zamafutha shale. 2014 nazo ingacaci kakhulu ngokubhekiselele kwamaxabiso e-oyile. Ngoku aye ehla kakhulu. Ukukhula Will - nje akukho bani unako ukuthetha.

Abahlaziyi OPEC, ingakumbi, bakholelwa ukuba xa amaxabiso oli ehlabathini ixesha elide liya kuhlala ngezantsi iidola 90 umphanda ngalinye, ngoko ke umyalelo umsebenzi yesiqingatha US "shale" iinkampani ziza kuba azincedi lutho. Ngenxa yoko, iingcali IHS bakholelwa ukuba ishishini uya bona kwimveliso ye-oyile, kwanokuba amaxabiso ihlabathi kuwa ku 57 zeerandi umphanda nganye. Abanye ezintweni kuvavanyo-NMMU, i-International Energy Agency. Ngokutsho kweengcali kwesi sakhiwo, loo nezokukhupha oyile ye-shale US iza kuba nenzuzo kakhulu xa amaxabiso ihlabathi kuwa ngezantsi $ 80 umphanda. Abahlaziyi Citigroup, nto, bakholelwa ukuba ukugcina 'ekuqaleni' kushishino eUnited States iya kuba izinga ezaneleyo-75 zeerandi.

Kukho uguqulelo umdla: Ukuba amaxabiso oli ehlabathini iza kuncipha, imibutho US, ukuvelisa "igolide black" ngeke ngendlela enye okanye omnye, kwanyanzeleka ukuba liphucule isiseko zeteknoloji ukuze zinciphise iindleko. Iingcali abo ukusondela kulo mbono bakholelwa ukuba "ioli shale" imboni ithuba elikhulu kule nkalo. zobuchwepheshe akhoyo, bakholelwa, ngendlela zovavanyo ezininzi kwaye eziliqela iinkalo kuxhome ngaphantsi nakwabo ezisetyenziswa kwimveliso oyile ngendlela yesiko. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, abahlalutyi bathi, amaMelika kwaneliseka workability. Ngenxa kule iindleko zamafutha shale eUnited States kunokuchaphazeleka. Ngokutsho Accenture uvavanyo arhente, iindleko ezifanelekileyo ukuze bawe-40%.

Komgqomo kumele akhule

Kunjalo, phakathi kweengcali ke kwincopho eqhelekileyo lwembono, kwanokuba US igesi ioli iindleko zemveliso lumalunga $ 50, imveliso yayo iya kuhlala, kunjalo, sikwancedela kwiinkampani US. Kodwa phantsi komqathango omnye - ngeli lixa oli ehlabathini angoku ekuqaleni kwehlobo ngo-2014 - malunga $ 110 umphanda. Kuphela ngoko ke akuyi kufuneka ucinge indlela yokunciphisa iindleko zamafutha shale. $ 80, nangona kunjalo, - ixabiso yangoku "ngegolide black". Oko kukuthi, ukuba umntu ithobela kule mbono, iifem American ngoku esengozini inzuzo. Malunga bankruptcies mass of mveliso kodwa ugweba information imvelaphi i kumajelo eendaba, oko nangoku ayikho.

iindleko

Ngaba ikho ingxaki kuloo nto, ioli shale iveliswa phantsi kwaziphi iimeko? Ixabiso Iindleko Yintoni kumiselwa ngokusekelwe kumxholo iinkqubo zemveliso kwi nezokukhupha "igolide black"?

Phakathi kakhulu ngokubhekiselele kwiindleko yeemeko - ubomi emithombo. Inyaniso yokuba shale ioli geni yi iteknoloji eyahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo xa kuthelekiswa ne kuphuhliso iidipozithi zemveli. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukusebenza nxamnye kwalo kakuhle omnye amaxesha amaninzi ngokukhawuleza. Kwaye ngenxa yokuba izixhobo ifakiwe ekuveliseni oyile shale, kungekudala emva kokuba uphuhliso lwezibonelelo zendawo kufuneka ubhale off ngenxa ukunxiba, okanye ukuba afudukele kwezinye izinto. Kakade ke, ukuze sihambe iindleko ezinkulu.

Enye into - ubunzulu shale oyile. Njengoko kwakunye nokufikelela kumanzi acocekileyo ezikufuphi, nto leyo inxaxheba kule nezokukhupha "zegolide abamnyama" kunye kusetyenziso lweeteknoloji ezifanelekileyo. Kuxhomekeke kubunzulu yeendleko resource ziyahluka kakhulu.

Le into elandelayo ezibalulekileyo - yenele ixabiso novavanyo shale zolondolozo. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba utyalo-mali eyenziwe ngokusekelwe uqikelelo nethemba abanalo ixesha ukuhlawula ngenxa yokuba oyile kuphela nje kwinkalo ethile. Kukho mzekelo umdla - in baphume Los Angeles Times le ncwadi, othi omnye namasimi oyile kwiingxelo-mali ojonge California kunye neyona ezahlulwe 25 amaxesha.

Enye into - ubukho abamelwane kunye needipozithi efanayo iidipozithi irhasi ye-shale. Inyaniso yokuba, ngokutsho kwezinye iingcali, kakuhle isakhiwo mayibandakanye inzuzo, kuphela ukuba iya kuveliswa zombini iindidi zamafutha.

Amathuba "shale revolution"

Noko ke, kungakhathaliseki ukuba amanani abonisa ukuba iindleko shale yeoli eUnited States, 2013 nango-2014 zibonisa ungobalekayo eMerika nezokukhupha neeminerali kweminye imithombo.

Ngokutsho iingqikelelo leengcali ezahlukeneyo kunye nabasemagunyeni, izalathisi ziya kukhula kuphela kule minyaka izayo. Umzekelo, i-Energy Information Administration (enye iiofisi zamasebe e-USA), ukholelwa ukuba ngowama-2019 yemveliso oyile ye-shale US iya kufikelela imiphanda yezigidi 9.5 ngosuku (ngoku - malunga 3 million).

Phakathi imibandela ukuthintela iinkampani ezivela eUnited States ukuphuhlisa - sele kuphawulwe sithi ngaphezu mkhuba isabelo lincinane iidipozithi ezizezinye. Ukuba idiphozithi yesiqhelo zingaphuhliswa iminyaka emininzi, umlinganiselo umgangatho shale - iminyaka 3-5. Ngeli xesha, i-oyile resource kakuhle ukuze sisazama yi-90% okanye ngaphezulu.

Ukulinganiswa nokuba iingcali American ngokwabo malunga amathuba nophuhliso "shale" zahlukile kakhulu. Umzekelo elula. Leyo Energy Information Administration ebesiyiqikelele ukuba enye iidiphozithi ezinkulu US - Bakken - 2040 imveliso yamafutha shale iya kuba imiphanda malunga 1 yezigidi ngosuku. Ngelo xesha, ngokutsho ziko yesebe yovavanyo Post Carbon, isibonisi kuba Bakken ayikho ngaphezulu kwama-73 amawaka. Nemigqomo. Umahluko phakathi iingqikelelo - ngaphezu phindene kalishumi. Kukho ukungangqinelani phakathi uqikelelo izakhiwo ezimbini kananjalo malunga loovimba ezithile oli-shale California. Hi ndlela leyi, kwezinye iimeko, i-Energy Information Administration impinda ngokubonakalayo iingqikelelo zalo namasimi ioli. Kwimeko enye, ukulinganisela lacuthwa ngama-96%. Noko ke, njengoko kuqatshelwe ezinye iingcali, abatyali, ekwenzeni isigqibo malunga nendlela imali kolu shishino, oko bakhokelwe wokuba lentelekelelo kuqala.

Noko ke, iingcali ndiyanibongoza ukuba sifinyelele kwizigqibo kunye noqikelelo. Kuyimfuneko ukuba bagcine indlela ukuphuhlisa ubuchwepheshe best ukuqinisekisa esebenza ngakumbi yaye, okona kubaluleke kakhulu, ube okusingqongileyo imveliso imveliso. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kuphuhliso lwamashisini American kuphuhliso iidipozithi ezizezinye "igolide black" ngeke amaxabiso namafutha jikelele.