Ioli Iranian kwi emarikeni. Umgangatho ioli Iranian. Apho Iran umnika oyile

Ukususwa kwezohlwayo ngamazwe oluchasene ne Iran, wongezelela omnye umthombo yonikezelo hydrocarbon, ixabiso le nto leyo esele iphantsi kakhulu. orhwebo lwe-oyile Iranian lisenokuthetha ngaye, kwakunye neenkampani oyile kumazwe ngamazwe nezesizwe ezisebenza kuMbindi Mpuma?

amandla Iran i-

1976 waye ilungileyo enyakeni beli lizwe neoli kushishino. Oil Iranian stably zivezwa mali imiphanda ezizigidi ezi-6 ngosuku, kwaye ngoNovemba kulo nyaka, i-nani bafikelela ibonwe 6.68 yezigidi. Ngelo xesha, kuphela Saudi Arabia, eSoviet Union kunye United States abenzi ezinkulu.

Oku kulandelwe revolution, kwaye kule minyaka ingama-35 idluleyo, neoli Iran akazange kufunxwa ngaphezulu yivoti ezibini zesishumi se-kwincopho yee-70s (nangona indima engundoqo edlalwa gesi), nangona ukuba oovimba zegolide omnyama kweli lizwe kule minyaka ili-15 idlulileyo kunyuke phantse 70% - iphezulu kakhulu kubamelwane yayo phezu xesha linye.

Noko ke, amava leminyaka 1970 isekhona esinamandla lokukhumbuza abafundi ukuba yintoni esingayenza kweshishini le-oyile ye Iran emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo.

amanyathelo asebenzayo

izohlwayo United States ukuba European Union kunye neZizwe eziManyeneyo zamiselwa kweli lizwe ukususela ngo-2011, kwabangela ukuncipha kakhulu kwimveliso oyile eIran. Abazange unako ukuluvala ngokupheleleyo phantsi kwiimarike zehlabathi, njengokuba abanye abathengi eziphambili - China, India, eJapan, South Korea ne Turkey - waqhubeka ukuthenga ininzi kakhulu amafutha Iranian.

Kunjalo, ifuthe izohlwayo iye phambili. Ngokukodwa, izithintelo elibi ubugcisa yokungenisa kuye kwakhokelela ekubeni kubekho ukwehla kwimeko zobugcisa izakhiwo zemveliso, nayo leyo zanciphisa umgangatho ioli Iranian. Ukongeza, le wawandisa EU yokuvalwa kwi-inshorensi yokufunxa labeka imingcele kwi anokubanakho kothunyelo kumazwe angaphandle kweli lizwe, njengoko ngaphezu kwe-90% ye-inshorensi yokufunxa izithuthi zehlabathi kulawulwa ngumthetho yaseYurophu.

Isiphetho kwaba ukuhla okubonakalayo kwimveliso hydrocarbon, ikakhulu ngenxa zokumisa nezingacwangciselwanga kunye ilahleko iyonke ye-18 ukuya kuma-20% of kwemveliso elindelekileyo ukususela ekuqalisweni kwezohlwayo ngo-2011. Izohlwayo kwimveliso ye-oyile cut Iranian nge million 0.8 b / d - inani ngoku ubuyele emarikeni.

Apho ioli Iranian ifumana nomthengi?

Emva kokuba ukususwa kwemiqathango ngoJanuwari, ngokutsho ezisemthethweni, Iran wathengisa zidlula ezine (4 million imiphanda) eYurophu, kuquka i-French Total, Cepsa Spanish kunye Russian Litasco. Oku kulingana yentengiso iintsuku malunga 5 kuphela kwinqanaba ukuya ku-2012, xa abathengi laseYurophu ngenqanawa amawaka 800. Imiphanda ngosuku. Abaninzi yangaphambili abathengi ezinkulu, kuquka Anglo-Dutch of Shell, Eni ka-Italian, isiGrike Hellenic Petroleum nendlu zorhwebo Vitol, Glencore kunye Trafigura, baya kuphela ukuqalisa imisebenzi. Ukungabikho zokuhlala dollar kunye indlela emisiweyo ukuthengiswa kwezinye iimali, kwakunye ukuthingaza iibhanki ukunika iileta ngetyala na imiqobo eziphambili emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo.

Ngelo xesha, abanye ababekholelwa abathengi ezinkulu ukungafuni Tehran ukuba lula iimeko zayo yentengiso kwiminyaka emine edlulileyo kwaye ukuba bhetyebhetye ngakumbi kwamaxabiso, nangona kwakuwo yonikezelo phezu imfuno kunye umyinge ekuthatheni Saudi Arabia Iran kwimarike yaseYurophu, Russia, Iraq.

Amathuba 2016

Ngenxa umhla ezayo okukunyusa kwezohlwayo imarike ihlabathi yeoli wenza neengxaki bearish, ngeli lixa ngama-25% kwisithuba ukususela ngoJuni ku-Agasti 2015. Ngelo xesha, ukuba ikamva NYMEX nangoku ekhomba lokuhlangulwa ethambileyo, kwakunye nezinye ii-arhente zamazwe ngamazwe kwangaphambili ngo ngoJulayi nango-Agasti 2015, sazinza kwi $ 45-65 umphanda, ngathi uhla amanani kwixesha ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi 2015

Le ulwalathiso elizayo semibutho orhwebo lwe-oyile ixhomeke yimalini kwaye nendlela ngokukhawuleza uya kwandisa ukuthunyelwa ioli Iranian emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo. Kukho izimvo ezimbini ezisisiseko kule Ukwanda.

Kwelinye icala, ngokutsho International Energy Agency (EIA), Iran unakho ukwandisa imveliso malunga 800 lamawaka. Imiphanda ngosuku, yesibini kuphela Saudi Arabia. Kwelinye icala, njengoko uqikelelo EIA, emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo ekuqaleni 2016 kubonelelo ioli Iranian ekrwada ngonyaka nge-avareji ukuba yande ngama-300 lamawaka. Imiphanda ngosuku.

Esona sizathu siphambili sokuba uqikelelo saa ezinjalo amanga neqiniso yokuba yokugqibela kusiqinisekisa ngakumbi nangakumbi isiphumo seminyaka eliqela le miqobo ukonakala kwezibonelelo lwezimbiwa Islamic Republic, ngoku kufuneka ixesha iba imveliso. Ekugqibeleni, ukususela embindini ka-2012 ngenxa zokumisa ezingacwangciswanga oyile Iranian ngcembe waqalisa ukuba bavelise ngaphantsi kwe 600-800 amawaka. Imiphanda ngosuku.

Indlela efanelekileyo la uqikelelo kwimveliso imarike ihlabathi lanamhlanje zegolide omnyama? Ukwanda amawaka 800. Imiphanda ngosuku yi malunga ne-1% iyonke izinto oli ehlabathini namhlanje, nto leyo kuba yanele utshintsho ngokukhawuleza kwi ixabiso ekhuphisanayo, kodwa hayi ngenxa kwaneliswe emarikeni. Ngokucace kakhulu, kwamaxabiso ezizizembiwa eliphakathi nexesha elide, njengoko umgaqo, badla alinganayo ukuba iindleko zemveliso ye Umphanda lokugqibela kwemfuno obanelisayo. Long-term oyile iphantsi-iindleko abangaphangeliyo utyalo-mali kuphuhliso iidipozithi ibiza kakhulu; ekugqibeleni, ivaliwe kakuhle, kwaye unikezelo lifinyele. Ukuba ixabiso liphuma ngaphezu kumda, utyalo mali olutsha kuzisa ezongezelelweyo imithombo, ezibiza kakhulu hydrocarbon.

Kule meko, ngokunxulumene iikowuteshini oyile shift ngo-2014, kwimarike lanamhlanje lixabiso igophe kangako (ukusukela kunazo nabizayo sele inzuzo). Ngoko ke, kukho umthombo encinane izinto zitshiphu kuya kuba nempembelelo kwixabiso ngaphantsi kakhulu kwiindawo ngqwabalala yee-2014.

Ngenxa yoko, imodeli orhwebo lwe-oyile icebisa ukuba Iran kufuneka bakwazi ukwandisa imveliso ngumntu olongezelelweyo amawaka 800. Imiphanda ngosuku ngo-2016. Quotes of Brent ngo-2016 kungenzeka ukuba iqhubeke ukuze sibe uluhlu $ 45-65 umphanda, nto leyo ehambisana inyoba amanani, sele isendleleni-2015.

Yintoni eza kwenzeka kwiminyaka 3-5?

Kwixesha elide, nangona kunjalo, ifuthe wokubuyiswa Iran zingabaluleka kakhulu. Kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo siye owangqina wave obafunyanwa ezintsha iphezulu kakhulu kunomyinge kwinqanaba kuMbindi Mpuma. Ilizwe akakwazi ukusebenzisa ngokupheleleyo ezi oovimba ngenxa okufikelela kwinkxasomali kwemali yangaphandle kobugcisa nobuchule. Ngenxa yoko, hayi nje wawa oli ekrwada, kodwa zibonise ukuba umgangatho loovimba lelona liphezulu kwimbali lizwe. Kwangaxeshanye, amanqanaba zangoku kwimveliso ukuba akakafiki inqanaba coverage yenkcitho karhulumente.

Oku, kunye nento yokuba Iran (ngokungafaniyo Kuwait, Saudi Arabia kunye UAE) ayinayo ngokwaneleyo yotyalo-mali ukuze kubuyekezelwe kwibhajethi intsilelo. Oku kuthetha ukuba i-oyile Iran aya uzakurhwetywa ngaphandle kwi ngaphezu koko, ke, ixhomekeke kwindlela urhulumente ukusebenzisa iteknoloji eziyimfuneko kunye namava.

I-sikhokelo yolawulo Islamic Republic naye yingxaki enkulu kwiinkampani zangaphandle abanqwenela ukutyala imali kwaye ukwazi kwicandelo amandla kweli lizwe. siseko Iran uyakwalela ubunini langaphandle okanye labucala kwezibonelelo zendalo, kunye nesivumelwano zokwabelana imveliso liyathintelwa ngumthetho. MNCs kunye nezinye abatyali amazwe kuvunyelwa kuphela ukuba bathathe inxaxheba kwiimvumelwano wokuhlola nemveliso ngokusebenzisa ukuthenga. Ezi izivumelwano, enyanisweni, ilingana izivumelwano ukubonelela ngeenkonzo, nto leyo evumela abatyali angaphandle nezenza baphande yaye baphuhlise needipozithi ezizizembiwa phantsi komqathango wokuba emva imveliso ekuqaleni, ulawulo ubuyisela National Iran Oil Company okanye enye iinkampani zayo lwembali ungakwazi ukuba bathenge amalungelo ukuze ngexabiso kusengaphambili. Ngo-2014, i-Ofisi yoMphathiswa Ioli Iran ibhengeze izicwangciso Yazisa i-ebizwa elidityanisiweyo oyile izivumelwano (i-IPC), apho isenzo njengoko adityanelweyo okanye PSA kunye enokubakho ngethuba-20 ukuya kwi-25 iminyaka (kabini yonke imihla ngexesha lentlawulelo izivumelwano). Ukuba olu hlobo entsha isivumelwano ziya kuvunyelwa yi-mthetho, umtsalane eli lizwe njengendawo yotyalo-mali ukuze MNCs kunye nabanye abadlali ngamazwe iya kukhula kakhulu kwaye liza kukhawulezisa uphuhliso loovimba hydrocarbon.

Amathuba imali eyinkunzi

Ngokutsho ezinye iingqikelelo, utyalo emitsha ukwandisa ioli lokuhlola kunye nemveliso e Iran yi-6% ngonyaka ngamnye kule minyaka mihlanu izayo (nto leyo ehambelana noko kwanda Iraq kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo), xa kuthelekiswa elingana ukwanda 1.4% kwimveliso oyile kwi kuMbindi Mpuma jikelele. Kulo mzekelo, kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno iya kuhlala injalo, ixabiso oli ingohluka phakathi $ 60-80 umphanda ngo-2020, lo gama kungekho kwezi ziganeko, nezinye izinto ilingana, iindleko ingaba 10-15% ngasentla.

Kule uhla amanani, utyalo-efakwa kunye iindleko eziphezulu, ezifana shale, ilitye elilula okanye kwithala, abadli ukubuyela kumanqanaba phambi 2014. Nangona imveliso kufuneka iqhubeke logama nje iphantsi ngokwaneleyo ukuze ithethelele iindleko iindleko zemveliso oyile , waphelelwa ngokukhawuleza zemithombo okunjalo kuya kunciphisa ixabiso lazo (imithombo shale, ngokukodwa, njengoko umthetho, ukunika 80% okanye ngaphezulu kule minyaka 3-5 yokuqala). Kwezi meko, isivuno yeoli Iranian ukuya imiqulu ezongezelelweyo lemarike liya betha imigodi shale eUnited States, yaye ngaphantsi kancinane kwimihlaba offshore kuMntla nakuMzantsi Merika, Asia, eAfrika kunye East Far eRashiya. A waphelelwa ngokukhawuleza yesibambiso North Sea iya kukhokelela indawo yabo ukwandisa imveliso e Iran owavelayo kwamanye amazwe, afana Iraq kunye Libya.

ioli Iranian, naseRashiya

umgangatho ophantsi Russian kwibakala oyile ngenxa Urals, ekhutshwe kwiMpuma Yurophu, liya lisanda ngokumxhalabisa abathengi, ukuba ikhokelele inzuzo processing kunye nelahleko zemali isiwo sayo. Ngenxa yoko, i-sulphur kwi anikezelweyo conduit "Druzhba" kwaye iiclamps e Primorsk neoli Ust-ndiwele ingaphezulu 1.5%, nokuxinana walo banda 31⁰ API. Oku ayihambelani iinkcukacha Platt ngokwala apho sulphur akufunekanga ibe ngaphezulu kwe-1,3%, kunye namanqaku mninzi - ubuncinane 32⁰.

Njengoko ukuhla ngakumbi abathengi eziphathekayo ekrwada Russian eYurophu liya kukhetha ezinye iiklasi - Kirkuk kunye Basrah Ukukhanya kunye Iran ukuKhanya. Umgangatho oyile Iranian Iran Ukukhanya ifaniswa umgangatho Urals. Ukuxinana kwamanqaku - 33,1 ° API, kwaye sulphur ayidluli 1.5%.

Ukususa ukwayo oluchasene kwiimfuno Islamic Republic ukusuka kwiinkampani ze-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe nezesizwe kule ngingqi Review izicwangciso-qhinga kwaye kuthathelwe ingqalelo imingeni kunye namathuba zimo.

utyalo-mali lwamazwe

ioli Iranian emakethe zomhlaba kuvula uluhlu olubanzi lamathuba okungenzeka MNCs kunye nezinye abatyali amazwe, ingakumbi ngemvume kwezivumelwano ezintsha IPC. Emva kweminyaka eliqela ukufikelela ngokupheleleyo ubugcisa bangaphandle kunye namava noshishino lokomba Iranian kuya kufuneka ngaphandle uncedo, yaye isimo sezimali zelizwe libonisa ukuba inzuzo yakhe ukususa yonke imiqobo ngokukhawuleza ukufumana le uncedo.

Ukongeza, lo gama imveliso iza kuba kwindawo yokuqala, nemeko efanayo ingenzeka ngokuhanjiswa (imibhobho ukuba ukurhweba ezandayo imithamo yemveliso), chemical (irhasi kunye imichiza ngokuhlaziya ukuvelisa olefins kwamanye amazwe), kunye nokulungiswa (kuba ukutshintshwa izixhobo yokucokisa oyile loo nto zaphuculwa ngexesha izohlwayo).

Ngaphambi kokubeka izithintelo, Iran ebesoloko ongenisa impahla enkulu yeoli, kwaba njalo nakaloku kunokwenzeka ukwandisa umthamo ukusulungekiswa ukuhlangabezana nemfuno zasekuhlaleni, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba isantya sokunyuka sezantsi kwesikhundla rial, nto leyo ekhuthaza endaweni import.

Production e Iran Iraq olukhulayo, kunye nokuzinziswa imeko yezopolitiko, sihlelwe ukunyusa e Libya, apho kunokwenzeka ukomeleza nokwandisa le meko ikhoyo oyile enexabiso. Kukho iindlela ezininzi eziya ukunciphisa impembelelo NOC.

Exploration and Production

Amathuba ukunciphisa iindleko nokwandisa ukusebenza, ingakumbi ezinxulumene kwiinkonzo zamabala, abeekhontrakthi kunye nezinye iindleko bangaphandle, eli lizwe. Ngexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu hydrocarbon zotyalo lwehlabathi ukuhlola kunye nokuveliswa iidipozithi ophezulu iindleko isantya kwiinkampani inkonzo kukho agqithisile amandla emveliso, yaye kakhulu vula ngokuhlalziya zabo iirhafu ezantsi ngakumbi. Ukongeza, xa zorhwebo eziphambili ezifana intsimbi, ngoku lingathengiswa bukhulu imbali, unciphiso ebalulekileyo indleko kunokuzuzwa kunye nolawulo izinto. Kuba Middle East NOCs apho isitokhwe nangoku ngexabiso ngokwaneleyo ukuze ukuzithethelela yotyalomali, ijolise ekuphuculeni unikezelo lithuba wokwenene ukunciphisa kakhulu iindleko ngaphandle ekutsaleni umdla wotyalo lokwenene.

processing

izinto ezingenziwa ekrwada kwakhona kuthetha ixabiso eliphantsi imveliso yawo. Ekubeni irhasi izinto ekrwada ngokuqhelekileyo kunikelwa uzithenga apha ekhaya, ixabiso iimveliso zepetroliyam ngamazinga kunye amaxabiso e-oli ekrwada.

Oku kuthetha ukuba kukho imfuno ina iimveliso yahluzwa locaphulo yancitshiswa ngokukhawuleza ngaphezu gas. Ngelo xesha, ukuba Iran uya kungena emarikeni kunye nezityalo igesi ngokuhlaziya olongezelweyo, kulula kakhulu ukuba ukwambatha thelekela angene ekhula imveliso igesi, oko kuya kuba uxinzelelo olukhulu kumaxabiso. Eneneni, ngenxa yokuba ilizwe umdibanisi izibonelelo LNG (kwaye kuthatha iminyaka ukuze kwakhiwe wayo), kungenzeka ukuba ukuzuza irhasi surplus uncipha okanye ukwakhiwa kwemibhobho amatsha (umzekelo, kangangokuba namhlanje inxibelelanisa eTurkey, Armenia ne Azerbaijan) okanye irhasi elihambisayo. Iran sele kwez usebenzisa le ndlela yokugqibela, lo gama kwangaxeshanye uceba ukuba imibhobho eyongezelelweyo ukuhlangabezana neemfuno okubonakalayo izityalo petrochemical entsha ngasentshonalanga lizwe. Umzekelo, ukwakhiwa km 1,500 West ethylenically inqawe kwinqanaba lokugqibela. Oku kuhlanganisiwe ixabiso eliphantsi kwanofakelo Iranian kusenokwenzeka ukwenza Islamic Republic yi ngumvelisi kunye iikowuteshini ophantsi olefins ukukhanya.

Oku kwakhona kuthetha ukuba ixabiso idibene iimveliso zepetroliyam kwandisa ukusetyenziswa nokuqhekeka encedisa ukuqalisa imisebenzi. ukubuya Iran ukuba emarikeni kuya kufuna uhlaziyo inzuzo isihlobo kwiimveliso ngokusekelwe hydrocarbon kunye namazwe igesi yemveliso nePersian Gulf unako ukufikelela inzuzo oluthelekisayo berhasi ngaphandle ngohlobo LNG kuthelekiswa processing lalo olefins.

Kanye cheap kangakanani ezilungileyo ngokuhlaziya iqhekeza, cheap oli ekrwada Iranian kwi imarike kuyinto elungileyo ukuba weengcibi. Oku kuya kukhokelela amathuba otyalo ngakumbi kwi-Gulf - wenze iiprojekthi eziliqela ukwandisa umthamo (ngaphandle ukwanda ezihla zinyuka, nto leyo kuqhutywa ngo-Iran). Kwimeko apho kuloo IOCs ubunzima kwezemali kunye neenkampani ezizimeleyo nakwezinye iindawo ehlabathini alangazelela ukuphelisa-asethi zabo ngemveliso yazo, kuMbindi Mpuma NOCs ndafumana ithuba naziphi enomtsalane kunye nokufunyanwa.

Ukususa ukwayo oluchasene Islamic Republic kunye nokwanda ezinxulumene kubonelelo hydrocarbon sifikelela kwisigqibo sokuba ihlabathi bufana ngo-1980, ifumaneka ekuqaleni yeoli ixesha ezinokuba elide na ngamaxabiso aphantsi. umbono Iranian uthembisa imingeni emitsha kunye namathuba, kwaye kokwabo abo ngokukhawuleza nangempumelelo ukubeka iimfuno ukutshintsha kwizicwangciso zazo ngobuchule.