Ngaba dollar ukuba avuke ngo-2014? Sase- se dollar ngo-2014

Ekupheleni kuka-2013 kunye nasekuqaleni kuka-2014 engange yawa kakhulu nxamnye dollar. Kodwa ngoJuni imeko, njengoko kuboniswa zorhwebo ngokuzoba kwiimarike kwemali yamazwe ngamazwe, kwabakho ngakumbi ubabalo yase Russian. Yeyiphi lweentsingiselo ukuba bacinge esisiseko? Ngaba dollar ukuba avuke ngo-2014 kwiinyanga ezizayo ngokuchasene engange kunye nezinye iimali ihlabathi?

izinto eyinqobo buthathaka le engange

iingcali Market of ngamazwe urhwebo lwemali, ukuzama ukuhlola amathuba imali Russian, endiyibumbileyo ndingamaqela amabini. Abameli yokuqala bakholelwa ukuba imali engange isaza buthathaka kwixesha elizayo - njengoko kwathi kwiinyanga zokuqala zika-2014. Bona umelana ngabahlahleli (abameli kurhulumente ikakhulu) abakholelwa ukuba kufuneka kungabikho inkxalabo malunga umyinge wokuphelelwa lwemali kazwelonke. Ngelo xesha linye i-manani liciko: kwenyeindawo ngorhwebo idola yaseMerika eneriseka engange-35 nangaphezulu, ifikelele nowakho imbali.

Ziziphi izizathu ukuba imali engange na uvalo kangaka, "nkxu"? Iingcali aphake amaqela ezininzi izinto. Okokuqala, lo Central Bank iye buthathaka kakhulu ulawulo borhwebo kwemali kunye engange. Ngaloo ndlela, ngaphandle ungenelelo, imali Russian yaba buthathaka kancinane phambi kwabo. Okwesibini, ukunyuka idola negalelo abemi Russia bethatha uthenga imali yaseMelika. Okwesithathu, kukho into umdla - urhulumente ngokwayo ukusuka kwindawo kwezoqoqosho lwembono, imali engange zithokombisile kuluncedo kuba uninzi kumazwe angaphandle zithengiselwa yamanye amazwe, ikakhulu njengokuba ixesha US. Amashishini zabo iimveliso kwamanye amazwe aphesheya, kunye nohlahlo lizwe bakhululeke kuphela kuba imali engange yokulahlekelwa ixabiso.

Le imali engange Russian kunye idola: amanani sase-

Xa ingcali izangqa zibizwa ngokuba iintlobo yamanani ezibonisa idola ngakumbi ngo-2014. Noko ke, ngamnye iingqikelelo kuthathelwa ingqalelo izizathu ezithile kakhulu, nto leyo yabangela ukuba ukunyuka okanye ukuwa zemali. Ukungangqinelani ixabiso idola Embonweni engange xa oko kubangelwa umahluko kuvavanyo leengcali, ngegalelo elingenzeka yeemeko ezingundoqo kwixabiso lemali Russian. Umzekelo, ukuba ixabiso oli iya kuncitshiswa ukusuka ixabiso ngoku kancinane phezu $ 100 umphanda ku-80, le engange, abahlalutyi bathi, nakanjani kuwa ngexabiso ukuya kwiiyunithi 38-39 dollar ngalinye.

Ukuba ixabiso "igolide abamnyama" liya kuba phezulu, kwaye imali Russian kunye namathuba ophakamileyo ukunyuka yolunye ixabiso. Loo nto inika umdla abemi Russian Federation kumisa kakhulu angabathembi. Njengoko yakutshanje vo, i baseRashiya kwi ubunzima phambili gqolo isimo ukwehla.

Dollar kunye nehlabathi iimali: i bezimali igama

arhente zohlahlelo kunye neengcali ukuba abasebenza kwi lwemali ilizwe American, ukuzama ukufumanisa ukuba yintoni na amathuba imali emarikeni. Phakathi kwawo kukho abo bakholelwa ukuba kusemthethweni ukwenza dollar uqikelelo emihle 2014, ubuncinane.

kakhulu ngumbono amathemba exchange market angaphandle, iingcali zithi, kuxhomekeke zorhwebo kunye nezinye yamaphepha, ingakumbi, phakathi omhle wesikiti kunye euro. Abanye abahlalutyi US bakholelwa ukuba kungenzeka ukuba lwemali British uza kuvuka ixabiso ngokunxulumene kwi "kumazwekazi" ngenxa yokuba i-European Central Bank iya kuqhubeka buthathaka umgaqo-nophazamiso kwentengiso. I dollar uya kuvuka, iingcali zithi, ngokumalunga nabo eKhanada, yaye New Zealand kunye iindaba malunga nobume uqoqosho kula mazwe yeyona nto ezintle ngokupheleleyo.

Nokuba ukukhula dollar ngundoqo engange?

Kukho kwinguqulo kukuwa yorhwebo engange njengoko lwemali urhwebo asakhasayo ngenxa yokuba kwi US - lizwe kunye kwezoqoqosho sikhulu ehlabathini - izinto ziyaphucuka, ukuze abatyali babe nentembelo ngakumbi dollar. Ehlabathini inkqubo efanayo kunokubonwa eYurophu. market Russian (kwakunye namanye amazwe asakhulayo), ke, njengoko abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa, ukuze libonakale ngokwaneleyo kubatyali-mali. uphuhliso olunokubakho yangoku loqoqosho Russian, wabathetheli ngayo lo mbono, udiniwe - kufuneka imveliso entsha, amashishini ezintsha. Phakathi iingenelo imarike Russian - mali elungeleleneyo, ubukho loovimba ngamazwe. umhlaziyi Oil bathi, kunye namathuba abancinane kuwa ixabiso ngezantsi $ 100 umphanda. Ngoko ke, ukwanda ngakumbi kwi dollar ngo-2014 nxamnye lwemali Russian kwelinye icala, isiseko impumelelo kuqoqosho American, yaye kwelinye - njenge counterweight kuzinzo relative kwimarike Russian, nto leyo eye zolondolozo ulwelo kunye kwamanye amazwe.

factor kwezoqoqosho

Makhe sihlolisise omnye zinto zijongwayo ukukhula idola nxamnye kwemali yamazwe asakhasayo, kubandakanywa imali engange (kwaye kwezinye iimeko - njengoko engamaphepha kunye namazwe aphuhlileyo) - sithetha iimpumelelo ezifunyenweyo ekuqubisaneni umbhodamo abaseMelika. Amaziko zemali ezifanelekileyo emarikeni US, luluhlu izinto ezintle, lets intetho malunga kuqheleke imicimbi kuqoqosho.

Umgaqo wolawulo-Fed, iingcali zikholelwa, kuya kuba ithambe ngokwaneleyo kwaye ngoko elungele ukukhula kwezabelo kwi-stock. iibhondi wezeZimali kuba isivuno izinzile. Ngenxa yoko, ukuba kwakutheni na ukuze imarike yaseYurophu thile ezahlukeneyo. Iibhondi ze amanye amazwe indawo yeyuro aqalile ukuya phezulu. I-European Central Bank ibamba, abahlalutyi bathi, hayi umgaqo olusebenzayo ngokupheleleyo lawulo wemali.

Ingxelo engentle imeko "American"

Phakathi-Juni 2014 wadlula US Federal Reserve intlanganiso kumgaqo-lawulo phambili. Kanye ngelo xesha, xa kwakukho inkomfa cofa intloko i-Federal Reserve, i-dollar sele lehlile kakhulu ngexabiso. I-Fed wagqiba ukuthoba amanani lokukhula kulindeleke kwe US kuqoqosho ngo-2014, kwakunye ushiye ngaphambili izibalo xa kuthelekiswa 2015-2016 esebenzayo. Izinga lokukhula kwamaxabiso i bezimali balindele yangaphambili, imeko ngqesho iye yangcono noko ithemba.

Nangona kunjalo, i-US intsilelo yorhwebo ndanda ngaphezu kwabo kulindeleke - ikakhulu, abahlalutyi bathi, ngenxa yokuhla angaphandle. I-Fed uceba ukugcina ixabiso ubuncinane umyinge wenzala. Ezinye utshintsho olululo US iingcali umgaqo wolawulo musa ukuba, ngoko abantu abaninzi nabuganga ukunika Ingxelo olomeleleyo ukukhula ngenxa dollar. 2014, ngoko, ngeke ibe iqhosha le US lwemali ngokwemiqathango ekufumaneni kwizikhundla ezikwi kumazwe aphuhlileyo imali, kwakunye esikiti kwaye euro.

Imiba echaphazela izinga lotshintshiselwano

Yintoni egqibayo ixabiso lemarike imali wesizwe? inkqubo iyafana amaxabiso naziphi na iimpahla, indlela engundoqo egqiba ixabiso engamaphepha abavela kumazwe ahlukeneyo - ukuba ubonelelo kunye nemfuno. Ngenxa yoko, iimeko ukuyilwa kweSebe la mabini zixhomekeke ezinye izinto. Phakathi kwabo - intsalela yorhwebo langaphandle, nto leyo nomnikezi lwemali, abasemagunyeni umgaqo wolawulo-mali (iiBhanki ezingoovimba), kwakunye eziphambili zopolitiko. Kungakhathaliseki ubude bexesha apho Dynamics ebona ekukhuleni dollar - 2014 unyaka okanye enye - ezi nemithetho efanelekileyo.

imali eseleyo kwi yorhwebo amazwe njengenye yezinto eziphambili

Ukwamkelwa zezimali kwiimalike zikazwelonke ngaphandle kuxhomekeke koko ixabiso ezithunyelwa yempahla kunye neenkonzo. Kumazwe angaphandle ukuba ahlawule iindleko ezinxulumene nemveliso imveliso yalo, ukuba uthenge lwemali kazwelonke - kwiintengiso ezininzi phesheya, lo ephakamileyo, ngokulandelelana, imfuno inqaku bank zasekhaya lizwe kunye ephezulu ireyithi kwentengiso. Importers kwakhona ukuba bathenge into kwelinye ilizwe kufuneka kujongana ngayo ukufumana utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle.

Bakha ifunwa kakhulu kweli lizwe. Ukungenisa kakhulu ngakumbi, kokukhona kukho imfuneko engamaphepha angaphandle, kwaye uphantsi umyinge wokuphelelwa lwemali kazwelonke. Kuba dollar, yonke le mithetho ngendlela esebenzayo. Ngoko ke, abatyali-zimali nokuhlola amathuba nokuba dollar ukuvuka ngo-2014, yaye yintoni nokuqina, ukufunda ikakhulu le United States manani zorhwebo amazwe. Into ebalulekileyo ekumiseleni amanani ngorhwebo lwemali - ibhalansi intlawulo karhulumente. Ukuba HIV, nto inegalelo izinga lokukhula yase yesizwe. Ngoko ke, ukuba kulo nyaka bekunjalo US kuqoqosho ziya kuhamba kakuhle, yaye intsalela luya kubalulwa iziphumo ezincumisayo, izinga lonaniselwano dollar ngo-2014 kusenokwenzeka ukuba eqikelelweyo njengoko phezulu.

Imbambano lwemali njengomba kwekhosi

Tholo yayizezona zinto ze zemali unikezelo - yayo kunye nokukhutshwa mboleko ukuba iibhanki zabucala, zombini iindidi imisebenzi olwenziwe States kunye namaziko zemali ezinxulumeneyo. Ukuba ubonelelo ngemali kuqoqosho fast, ngoko ke amandla kwemfuneko engamaphepha Abangawugciniyo kunye nayo, ukuze ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano ungala. Iingcali ezenza dollar sezulu 2014, ngaloo ndlela nokuhlola umsebenzi ishicilela engamaphepha amaziko American zemali, kwakunye nemisebenzi yazo entsimini ezibolekisa yebhanki zabucala. Umzekelo, kwi ingxaki ka-2008 , ebizwa ngokuba yi-Plan Paulson yamkelwa eUnited States. Phantsi kwale projekthi, iibhanki babeza kufumana mboleko nezibambiso ezivela eenkampani zemali - ukuba ahlambe.

Amanye amazwe ngamanye amaxesha athathe amanyathelo afanayo - umzekelo, eRashiya de kwango-2006, ndandisenza intengiso mandatory olungaphelelanga imali yengeniso yamazwe angaphandle yi angaphandle. Ukongeza, ukwenza iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zongenelelo ngoncedo inxaxheba kurhwebo lwasemakhaya, iibhanki esembindini uyakwazi ukugcina izinga imali lwasekhaya enziwe. Xa kuhlolwa amathuba nokuba ukwandisa dollar ngo-2014 nxamnye engange, iingcali ujonge indlela Central Bank of nkqubo eRashiya ngokunxulumene ngoncedo kwentengiso exchange angaphandle.

Dollar njenge "ephephile"

Ngayo nayiphi na indlela yokubala, i-US uqoqosho - ngobukhulu yaye omnye kakhulu isitali ehlabathini. Ngoko ke, lo dollar nelelalela elikhulu wokuzithemba ngakwicala abatyali ehlabathini lonke. Into ebalulekileyo - imbali lwemali. Dollar kangangeenkulungwane eziliqela, nangenxa lonke ixesha ingeniso yawo yembutho, wayengomnye iindlela eziphambili iintlawulo ngamazwe. Kukho elithi "yindawo ekhuselekileyo." I dollar US lisetyenziswa ziingcali ezininzi kwindawo yokuqala (nokuba engamaphepha le hlobo kudla ngokubhekiswa yen Japanese). Ezi iimali zithathwa njengenye yezona isitali isiphumo leempawu izinto ezininzi. Ngoko ke, abatyali-bazama ukuphelisa ngokwabo iindleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada, umzekelo, iimarike badla bathengise impahla yabo, eyiguqula ibe "yindawo ekhuselekileyo." Oku kudala ezona zinto zifuneka kuqala ukuze impendulo elihle umbuzo wokuba ingaba ukwandisa dollar ngo-2014. "Ewe," - uthi iingcali kakhulu siqonde indima ngembali US lwemali, kwakunye unikwe US kuqoqosho.