Model Gordon formula calculation umzekelo

Kwicandelo investment kukho into eninzi ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo ukubala Iziphumo zoqoqosho. Ezinye zazo zinxulumene kwiibhondi zikarhulumente, abanye sisajongisisa iinkalo ezahlukeneyo iinkampani ezahlukeneyo, belinganisa isibheno sabo. Abanye ezifundiswa ngendlela eya oqotho ixabiso lamashishinana. Kakade ke, kusekho inani ezongeziweyo iparameters ezinokuthi zifakwe apha, kodwa oku ngandlela kamva. Ngoku Inqaku umdla inkulu umbuzo: yintoni na umfuziselo Gordon? Isetyenziswa ukuba yintoni? Kulingisa yintoni umphumo ubonisa, nendlela ukuyichaza? Kuba abathile fomyula ukuba babale?

Yintoni kuthiwa umfuziselo Gordon?

Gordon imodeli - Umahluko yemodeli isaphulelo tivi, esetyenziselwa zibale ixabiso yesitokhwe okanye ishishini. ukusetyenziswa kwayo lokuqala lufumaneka ekubaleni ixabiso iinkampani ukuba abonisiwe kwi istock exchange kwaye kunzima ukuqikelela ezinye izixhobo kwezoqoqosho. Ungafumana kwakhona & igama eyandisiweyo - imodeli yokukhula Gordon.

Yintoni ifomula?

Noko, enyanisweni, ukuba akwazi ezinye uhlobo meko? Lidla nje - ngoncedo lwemathematika. Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba umfuziselo uGordon anokwenziwa liqela zeemeko, kukowuphi umzekelo apho kuya kuchaphazela umxholo ifomula. Kodwa qiniseka ukuba unayo ufifi lokuba yintoni iya kuqhutywa, ibattery banikele kakhulu equation zithandwa wadala iintlawulo tivi, nto leyo eya kuba kunyaka olandelayo kwi imeko yokwandisa ubungakanani umyinge wala lokukhula. Ngoko ifomula model Gordon:

• DSC = (x DVTP (STRD + 1)) + SATM STRD.

Ingcaciso izifinyezo na ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:

1. DSK - buyela kubulungisa kule nkampani.
2. DVTP - izabelo kweli xesha langoku.
3. STRD - umlinganiselo izinga lokukhula izahlulo.
4. SATM - share ixabiso okwangoku, leyo avavanye imodeli Gordon.

Umzekelo yokubala

Ngumzekelo ngesandla kunokuba yingxaki yaye zitya ixesha. Ngoko ke, lo eliphakathi abangabancedani lisetyenziswa ezininzi, ezifana Excel. Masithi "Gazprom" share ezixabisa 150,4 engange. Unako ukubona umzekelo ekubaleni ngezantsi. Formula, leyo ingqalelo:

1. imbuyekezo esilindelekileyo kwizabelo = B20 x (1 + D7): E7 + D7.
2. CAGR tivi = (B20: B7) ^ (1: 13) - 1.

Kutheni kufuneka oko?

imodeli Gordon kungathatha ukuqinisekisa uphuhliso yovavanyo nzima, ngexesha ucwangciso irhafu, kwakunye nangexesha lokubhalwa izabelo uvandlakanyo ukuba ukukhula efanayo tivi kwi imali eninzi. Kwakhona, ukusetyenziswa kakuhle kwezi meko zilandelayo:

1. Ukwanda kwiintengiso evolyum emarikeni.
2. Kukho befumana izinto ekrwada kunye nezibonelelo eziphathekayo ezifunekayo ukuze imveliso.
3. lobuchwepheshe Applied kunye nezixhobo zisebenza kakhulu, kunye nokutshintshwa sawo kulindeleke kwiminyaka embalwa elandelayo, okanye ezo ziziqinisekiso eziya yala maxesha ngeteknoloji entsha kwixa elizayo.
4. Le nkampani iye izibonelelo zemali ukuba ingabhekiswa ekuphuculeni umgangatho wayo.
5. Kukho imeko ozinzileyo kwezoqoqosho.

Kufuneka baziswe ukuba tivi uqikelelo ngokwayo lungumngeni kakhulu ngenxa yokuba ubukho imingcipheko ezahlukeneyo zoqoqosho (esoloko ikhona, kwanokuba phambi inkampani kwavavanywa waza wafumana ingxelo elungileyo malunga uzinzo zeshishini). Ngoko ke, kukho iindlela ezimbalwa kakhulu ukuqikelela ubungakanani iintlawulo ezichazwe ukwenza yonke into ngokuchanekileyo kangangoko kunokwenzeka. nazo izithintelo ezithile ezibekiweyo. Ngenxa yoko, imodeli Gordon zisetyenziselwa ngokusekelwe ukuba kuza kubakho owaziwayo izinga lokukhula kweentlawulo tivi. Hi ndlela leyi, le icandelo kuqoqosho ngqo kangangokuba ngohlolo kwezinye iindlela akwenzeki.

Le peculiarity kwale modeli

Zeziphi iimpawu kule modeli unganikeza? Eyona kanye eyona nto inomdla kakhulu kukuba xa iimeko ezithile ithotyelwe, ngoko ke equation uba elingana epheleleyo formula jikelele cash flow ngesaphulelo iiyunithi. Ngoko ke, ukumisela ixabiso yangoku equity yeshishini, oko kuyimfuneko ukuba yonke kulindeleke nokuphuma kwemali kwexesha Lomdla bahlulwe umahluko khona phakathi kwe izinga isaphulelo kunye nezinga lokukhula. Apha kuyimfuneko ukubhengeza ukuba uGordon yokuqala ufuna isisombululo ukubala ingeniso, unako ukubala. Ngako oko, owokuqala data izibalo ngokuba "tivi modeli." Kodwa enoba yintoni, inxaki eboniswe apha, yinto eqhelekileyo.

Hi ndlela leyi, umahluko phakathi umyinge isaphulelo kwaye izinga lokukhula nanjengokwesimo zophuculo. Okunye Ungabala ombane (okanye ratio) isivuno. Ukwenza oku, iyunithi lahlulwe njengenkunzi izinga. Ngoko ke kunzima ukuba awuvumelani nale ngxelo uGordon nxaki ngu ehambelana nazo imodeli jikelele wovavanyo. Ukuze ngokwezibalo amisele nomtsalane ingeniso ishishini into. Ngenxa kule propati, xa wayebhekisela imodeli Gordon kuba lula ukwenza uhlahlelo ulwazi zabelo okanye kwishishini / inkampani karhulumente. Ukusebenzisa ubalo efunyenwe ifomula ezinjalo ukulawula ngendlela eyiyo ishishini okanye ukuqikelela ixabiso layo. Kwakhona ngamanye amaxesha ukufumana leswaku a kota ku iincwadi yezoqoqosho njengoko "indlela yokukhula".

abaziqondi ukusebenzisa

Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba zonke izinto zayo, imodeli uGordon kukho umda kulingene lokusetyenziswa. Ngoko ke, ukuba benze izibalo kuso kuphela ezo iinkampani ngoku ukukhula izinzile. Ukuze ngokuchanekileyo ukusebenzisa ulwazi, idatha yokuqingqa isantya sokukhula kufuneka bangenele inkqubo yokhetho ngokucokisekileyo.

ukuwa Ideal phantsi Gordon iinkampani eziyimizekelo unokuqhayisa imila, nto leyo ilingana kukwanda ngegama kuqoqosho (okanye izinga lokukhula ngaphantsi kuyo). Kuyimfuneko ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo ecacileyo elicacisiweyo, nobhaliweyo iintlawulo zezabelo kunye eza kubanjelwa kwixesha elizayo.

isiphelo

Xa ndiqukumbela, singakwazi baphethe ukubaluleka esibonelela izixhobo kwezoqoqosho. Kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba ikuvumela ukuba uhlolisise amashishini kunye neenkampani ezingekho kwi-stock.

Okunye okubaluleke kakhulu yindima yayo ekusekeni imeko yangoku yombutho, kwakunye nomgangatho inzuzo yocwangciso, nto leyo kulindeleke kwixa elizayo. Kwakhona qinisekisa ukuba uthathe ingqalelo izinto apho nina nonke ukusetyenziswa. Nazi ezinye fomyula malunga neemeko ezahlukileyo, kwaye xa unomdla kulo mxholo - baya kuba luncedo kuphuhliso lwamacandelo noqoqosho phakathi eyunivesithi okanye.