Imodeli stochastic yoqoqosho. imifuziselo Deterministic and stochastic

Umfuziselo stochastic uchaza imeko apho ukungaqiniseki ekhoyo. Ngamanye amazwi, le nkqubo iphawulwa iqondo elithile randomness. I 'stochastic "Isichazi kakhulu livela kwigama lesiGrike elithi" uqikelelo. " Ngenxa yokungaqiniseki yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kubomi bemihla ngemihla, umfuziselo enjalo ukuchaza nantoni na.

Noko ke, ngalo lonke ixesha sisebenzisa oko, uya kufumana iziphumo ezahlukeneyo. Ngoko ke wayedla imifuziselo deterministic. Nangona ayikho kufutshane imeko yokwenene bemicimbi, kodwa sinike isiphumo esifanayo kwaye lula ukuqonda le meko, lula oko, ngokusungula quadratic ezintsonkothileyo zezibalo.

iimpawu eziphambili

imodeli Stochastic njalo kubandakanya enye okanye ngaphezulu variables random. Ifuna ukubonisa ubomi benene zonke obubonakala. Ngokungafaniyo imifuziselo deterministic, stochastic ayenzelwanga ukuba lula nokunciphisa ku amaxabiso ezaziwayo. Ngoko, ukungaqiniseki yi phawu yayo engundoqo. imifuziselo Stochastic zanele ukuchaza nantoni na, kodwa bonke zisebenzisa mpawu zilandelayo:

• Nayiphi model stochastic ibonakalisa zonke iinkalo ngxaki, ukuze bafunde leyo kusekwa.
• Isiphumo nganye iziganeko akunakuqinisekiswa. Ngoko ke, le modeli iquka namathuba. Ukuchaneka ekubaleni kuxhomekeke ukuchaneka iziphumo lulonke.
• Ezi baphicothwa zingasetyenziswa ukuqikelela okanye uchaze iinkqubo ngokwabo.

imifuziselo Deterministic and stochastic

Kuba abathile, ubomi uthotho iziganeko random, kuba abanye - inkqubo apho unobangela kubangela nesiphumo. Eneneni, luphawulwa ukungaqiniseki, kodwa akusoloko kwaye yonke indawo. Ngoko ke ngamanye amaxesha kunzima ukufumana umahluko ocacileyo phakathi stochastic kunye neemodeli deterministic. Ezi banikwa baphicothwa, ukuba Isalathisi kakhulu ezikhathazayo.

Ngokomzekelo, cinga ukujula imali. Ngophanya nje lweliso, kubonakala ukuba nokwenzeka kokuba ewela "nemisila", yi-50%. Ngoko kuyimfuneko ukuba kusetyenziswe umfuziselo deterministic. Noko ke, inyaniso kukuba kakhulu ixhomekeke dexterity labadlali kunye zemali balancing egqibeleleyo. Oku kuthetha ukuba kufuneka usebenzise umfuziselo stochastic. Soloko Ukhetho asazi. Ebomini, isizathu kusoloko ngenxa oonobangela, kodwa kukho kwakhona isidanga ukungaqiniseki. Ukhetho phakathi usebenzisa imizekelo deterministic kwaye stochastic kuxhomekeke koko sikulungele ukuncama na - uhlalutyo ezilula okanye kukuziqhatha.

In theory chaos

Kutsha nje, ingqikelelo nto kuthiwa imodeli stochastic, kuye kwayinto fifi ngakumbi. Oku kungenxa kuphuhliso theory isiphithiphithi ekuthiwa njalo-. Lichaza umfuziselo deterministic ukuba unako ukuvelisa iziphumo ezahlukeneyo kunye utshintsho encinci ekuqaleni parameters. Oku kuyafana kusungulo ukungaqiniseki ingqalelo. Izazinzulu ezininzi wada wavuma ukuba oku sele umfuziselo stochastic.

Lothar Breyer wachaza ubuncwane zonke usebenzisa imifanekiso zemibongo. Wabhala: "Le entabeni, intliziyo ibetha, ngubhubhane yingqakaqha, umhlathi ekuphumeni umsi - konke oku ngumzekelo into eguquguqukayo, njengoko kubonakala, maxa wambi esibonakala randomness. Noko ke, eneneni, iinkqubo ezinjalo zisoloko ziphantsi ngendlela ethile, apho izazinzulu neenjineli kuqala nje ukuba baqonde. Oku kwaziwa ngokuba sisiphithiphithi deterministic. " Le mfundiso intsha izandi zivakala kakhulu, izazinzulu ezininzi kangaka namhlanje abaxhasi bayo. Noko ke, iya kuphuhliswa ngayo nangoku encinane, kwaye kunzima kakhulu ukuba isicelo izibalo zamanani. Ngoko ke idla ngokusetyenziswa stochastic okanye imifuziselo deterministic.

isakhiwo

Stochastic imodeli zezibalo iqala kunye nokukhethwa isithuba iziganeko nezakhiwo. Ngoko ke manani wabhekisela uluhlu lweziphumo zenkqubo ofunde okanye isiganeko kunokwenzeka. Ke umphandi imisela okuba ngamnye iziganeko nezakhiwo. Oku kudla kwenziwa ngokusekelwe indlela ethile.

Nangona kunjalo, lo amathuba lo gama parameter kunokuba ezikhathazayo. Le umphandi ngoko ichaza ukuba izakuba ngowuphi iziganeko umdla kakhulu ukusombulula le ngxaki. Emva koko, koko nje uchaza ukuba semgangathweni kwazo.

umzekelo

Qwalasela inkqubo yokwakha umfuziselo stochastic elula kakhulu. Masithi siphosa idayisi. Ukuba iziphumo zithi umntu lowo okanye "" "ezintandathu", inzuzo yethu iidola ezilishumi. Inkqubo yokwakha umfuziselo stochastic kule meko iza kuba ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:

• Thina ezichaza isithuba iziganeko nezakhiwo. Kwi tyhubhu emacaleni ezintandathu, ukuze iwe "omnye", "ezimbini", "ezintathu", "ezine", "abahlanu" yaye "ezintandathu".
• Amathuba isiphumo ngasinye ilingana no 1/6, kungakhathaliseki ukuba waziphosa idayisi.
• Ngoku kufuneka ukuba ukujonga iziphumo umdla. Le ukulahleka ngohlangothi kunye nenani "ezintandathu" okanye "enye".
• Ekugqibeleni, sikwazi amathuba kwisiganeko umdla kuthi. Kuyinto 1/3. Siyawashwankathela amathuba umdla kuthi zombini iziganeko eziziziqalelo: 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3.

Kombono isiphumo

ucikizeko Stochastic isoloko isetyenziswa kungcakazo. Kodwa ke sele nolwemozulu kwezoqoqosho, njengoko bavumela gangqa deterministic, ukuqonda imeko. imifuziselo Stochastic Economics adla ngokusetyenziswa xa kusenziwa izigqibo zotyalo-mali. Amvumela ukuba wenze uqikelelo malunga inzuzo lotyalo-mali izinto okanye amaqela athile.

Ngumzekelo yenza isicwangciso-mali ngempumelelo. Ngoncedo abatyali-mali kunye nabarhwebi ukwandisa nokwabiwa kwee-asethi zayo. Ukusebenzisa stochastic kwasetyen- usoloko i inzuzo ekuhambeni kwexesha. Kwezinye mveliso, nokwalelwa okanye ukungakwazi ukusebenzisa ukuba ungaze ungonakala lweshishini. Oku kungenxa yokuba ebomini ebalulekileyo iinketho ezintsha mayibonakale yonke imihla, yaye ukuba ngaba kuthathelwa ingqalelo, oko kunokuba yingozi.